MBS Day Ahead: First and Last Economic Data this Week

Thursday brings the week's only dose of economic data.  While none of the reports are top tier, markets may still take the opportunity to adjust their approach to next week's FOMC Announcement. 

Until now, that approach has been characterized by a mostly sideways "leveling-off" process following the NFP-inspired rally earlier in the month.  Zooming in to view just the past 4 sessions and rates look like they're running some risk of bouncing off resistance levels and heading into weaker territory.

If today's session results in more losses, it will make for an increasingly slippery slope in that regard.  In other words, if 10yr yields were to rise above the 21-day moving average at 2.88 for instance, the shape of the past few weeks would begin to look less level and more like a bounce.  Such a move would also add confirmation to a potentially negative shift in technicals that reemerged yesterday.

The technical concern is mitigated by the fundamental understanding that markets tend to hesitate ahead of events like next week's FOMC.  Granted, the consensus is for the Fed to stay the course, but recent reactions to Fed speeches suggest a few dissenters in the crowd who may not be fully on board with the "full steam ahead" mentality regarding the reduction of Fed bond buying. 

Today's data (the relevant reports anyway), hit at 8:30am and 10am with Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales respectively.  The Claims data is still trying to earn its spot back at the big kid table after several late 2013 reports that were so far off the mark that markets disregarded the subsequent reports.  That's only just begun to change with the last few, and today provides another chance. 

Existing Home Sales is coming off its worst print in a year, and not expected to gain much ground.  This opens the door for a bit more of a reaction than normal as a miss would likely be another 1-Year+ low.