MBS MID-DAY: Holding Ground After Morning Weakness

By: Matthew Graham •

Bond markets had an exceptionally narrow, quiet overnight session with 10yr yields holding inside a 1.7bp range and hitting 8am almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels.  MBS also opened unchanged and, along with Treasuries, improved slightly ahead of the morning's data.

Stronger-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing and Producer Price data led to abrupt but contained losses at 8:30am. Empire State is particularly important as the big improvement in New Orders and Employment are some of the first pieces of January data
that suggest the super low December Payrolls number (that came out on
Jan 10th) may end up being an outlier.

10yr yields shot up from 2.86 to 2.91 and currently sit at 2.90.  Fannie 4.0 MBS moved from 103-23 to 103-14 and are currently at 103-16.  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
95-17 : -0-08
FNMA 3.5
99-29 : -0-07
FNMA 4.0
103-16 : -0-05
Treasuries
2 YR
0.3945 : +0.0125
10 YR
2.8986 : +0.0296
30 YR
3.8275 : +0.0275
Pricing as of 1/15/14 12:08PMEST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:53AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Lose Ground After Econ Data
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. DEC PPI +0.4 PCT, LARGEST RISE SINCE JUNE 2013 (CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT) VS NOV -0.1 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. DEC YEAR-OVER-YEAR PPI +1.2 PCT (CONS +1.1 PCT), CORE +1.4 PCT (CONS +1.3 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT +12.20 IN JAN VS 0.00 IN DEC "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX HIGHEST IN TWO YEARS, NY FED REPORT SAYS "
Matthew Graham  :  "oh, I missed this one: RTRS- NEARLY HALF OF INCREASE IN DECEMBER CORE PPI ATTRIBUTABLE TO TOBACCO PRICE RISE--LABOR DEPT"
Gaius Rossini  :  "in the cursed 804 page abomination that is the qualified mortgage ruling & accompanying comments doc I downloaded, can someone please tell me where they discuss what counts as a point or fee?"
Gaius Rossini  :  "like, does upfront hazard insurance count? the life of loan flood certification? the Tax service fee? what about the condo binder if it's a condo?"
Roger Moore  :  "none of those fees count. "
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "RM, the upfront MI doesn't count towards the 3% but it does count towards the APR and determining Higher Priced Mortgage, right?"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Something tells me we're going to see a lot more changes and tweaks on the guides with these issues as we trudge into the world of QM/ATR this year..."
Roger Moore  :  "i know fha mip isn't counted towards qm, but i think single financed MI does. seems to be some confusion on this. both count towards higher priced mortgages. that's my take on it. "
Christopher Stevens  :  "why would you suspend upfront MI"
Ted Rood  :  "Borrower paid, it counts against the 3% cost cap."