The Day Ahead: Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, PCE Core, Jobless Claims

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It's another busy day Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with the release of U.S. personal income, the PCE Core Deflator, new home sales, durable goods and weekly jobless claims.

U.S. durable goods are expected to fall 3.0% in October following September's revised increase of 0.9%. Core durable goods, excluding transportation, are expected to fall 1.6% following the previous upwardly revised decline of 1.0%.

U.S. personal income for October is expected to rise 0.1% following September's 0.2% rise, while personal spending is expected to continue to decrease, with a decline of 1.0% in October following a 0.3% loss in September.

Looking at inflation, the core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of price increases, is expected to come in flat month-over-month in October, while on a yearly basis is expected to rise by 2.2%.

Unemployment data will continue to be a prime source of interest for markets. Initial jobless claims are forecast to come in at 535K, down from the prior week's 542K result. Continuing claims are expected to maintain their upward momentum. Economist project that continuing claims will come in at 4080k, up from last week's 4012k figure.

Economists are expecting more bad news on the U.S. housing market from October's new home sales report. October's sales are expected to be down 5.0% following September's gain of 2.7%. The consensus is calling for 441,000 new homes to be sold, down from September's 464,000 sold.

The U.S. Department of Energy will release oil inventories for the week ending November 21. Analysts are expecting a 1100k build in crude oil reserves following the previous 1599k increase. Gasoline inventories are expected to expand 500k following the previous 539k rise. Distillate inventories are expected to decline 900k barrels after falling 1471k in the previous week. Refinery utilization is expected to increase by 0.30% after rising 0.32% in the previous week

All times in EST:

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Prior: -6.2%

8:30 US Durable Goods Orders October Exp: -3.0% Prior: +0.8% Revised: +0.9%

8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation October Exp: -1.6% Prior: -1.1% Revised: -1.0%

8:30 US Personal Income October Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.2%

8:30 US Personal Spending October Exp: -1.0% Prior: -0.3%

8:30 US PCE Core (Y/Y) October Exp: +2.2% Prior: +2.4%

8:30 US PCE Core (M/M) October Exp: +0.0% Prior: +0.2%

8:30 US PCE Deflator (Y/Y) October Exp: +3.3% Prior: +4.2%

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E November 22 Exp: +535K Prior: +542K

8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E November 15 Exp: +4080K Prior: +4012K

9:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager November Exp: 37.0 Prior: 37.8

10:00 US University of Michigan/Reuters Confidence November Final Exp: 57.5 Prior: 57.9

10:00 US New Home Sales October Exp: 441K Prior: 464K

10:00 US New Home Sales (M/M) October Exp: -5.0% Prior: +2.7%

10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E November 21 Exp: +1100K Prior: +1599K

10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E November 21 Exp:+500K Prior: +539K

10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E November 21 Exp: -900K Prior: -1471K

10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E November 21 Exp: +0.30% Prior: +0.32%

10:35 US API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E November 21 Prior: +8011K

10:35 US API U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E November 21 Prior: +710K

10:35 US API U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E November 21 Prior: +126K

12:00 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E November 21 Exp: -45 Prior: +16

By Steve Stecyk and edited by Megan Ainscow
©CEP News Ltd. 2008