The Day Ahead: Pending Home Sales and More Activity

Last week was brutally slow, punctuated by an early close on Tuesday, the Christmas holiday on Wednesday and a general absence of volume and volatility for everything else.  While the current week also has a day and a half missing due to the New Year holiday, it should prove to be something of a warm-up for increased activity in the following week (which contains Nonfarm Payrolls).  The only major data set for today is the Pending Home Sales index at 10am.

The chart below shows 10yr yields for the past 9 months and focuses particularly on the major post-June-FOMC trading range between 2.47 and 3.01.  The last three instances where these bookends came into play have been characterized by volatility.  But the most recent example last week was instead the result of a sober march toward the weakest levels in 2+ years.  Until now, the lines in the sand have been clear.  If we soon break higher into the 3's, we'll be in uncharted territory to a greater extent, potentially increasing volatility.