Biggest Home Price Gains Since Collapse; Potential Shift Ahead
Another firm has weighed in with an index that confirms both the continuation of the better than year-long housing price gains and that the price performance is beginning to moderate. The latest, FNC's Residential Price IndexTM (RPI), shows both a substantial increase in home prices during the third quarter of 2013 but also a broadening of the housing recovery across the country. The RPI increased 2.5 percent between the second and quarters, making the most recent quarter's growth the fastest in the current recovery.
FNC said rising home sales accompanied by a relatively low share of foreclosure re-sales are the key drivers of continued increases in home prices. As of September, foreclosure sales nationwide accounted for 13.4% of total home sales, up slightly from August's 12.7% but down from 16.6% a year ago.
The typical winter slowdown in housing demand is expected to curtail price increases in the coming months. FNC points to one sign of slower growth ahead, the leading October sales-to-list price ratio fell to 96.0 from 96.5 in July and August.
On a monthly basis the increase in FNC's composite covering the 100 largest metropolitan areas increased by 0.5 percent. In another indication of moderating momentum the September price increase was lower than either of the previous months in the quarter. The 100-MSA composite increased a modest 5.2 percent from a year ago and the 30-MSA and 10-MSA composites exhibit similar month-over-month price patterns but faster accelerations in year-over-year growth at 6.7 and 6.8 percent respectively. FNC's composites are based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties, both new and existing homes.
Prices rose by August to September in 27 of the cities in the 30-MSA index with Miami, Baltimore, Charlotte, North Carolina; and Riverside, California each posting growth of about 20 percent. Home prices in Denver declined for the second month in a row and the city's foreclosure sales picked up slightly in recent months. St. Louis saw a significant uptick in foreclosure sales from 19.5 percent in September 2012 to 30 percent this September and a 1.3 percent drop in home prices.
Fifty of the 100 MSAs have shown double digit price growth since early 2012 with some of the best numbers turned in by markets that were in high distress a few years earlier such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, Riverside, Los Angeles and Orlando. The 100-MSA composite showed an 11.0 percent cumulative price recovery nationwide.
FNC's RPI is a hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes. As a gauge of underlying home values, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are frequently sold with large price discounts, reflecting poor property conditions.