MBS MID-DAY: Slightly Stronger, but Mostly Sideways
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
Amid today's lack of significant bond-market-specific events, Treasuries and MBS have erased a moderate amount of yesterday's weakness. The Leading Indicators report was the only scheduled economic data this morning and it did nothing to move markets. Afternoon trading may be influenced by a hefty calendar of corporate debt issuance.
The implication of corporate debt on Treasuries (and by extension, MBS) was discussed in detail here. The upshot is that it at least creates volatility, but carries a default connotation of negativity for Treasuries and MBS. This all begs the question: if it's negative by default, and if traders know it's coming, wouldn't they already be in position for it? The answer is yes, but the extent of the impact is unknown.
This is neither here nor there, however. The most important and interesting thing about today is that it hasn't been very interesting at all. We've traded in a narrower range and have moved more sideways than anything. This is the least surprising eventuality, and it reinforces that bonds are waiting on data tomorrow and especially Friday.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
9:36AM :
Bond Markets Level-Off After Modest Overnight Gains
Trading levels are muddling sideways so far this morning, just slightly inside yesterday's weakest levels. The exception is 30yr Treasury Bonds, which spiked into negative territory after this morning's Treasury refunding announcement (Treasury plans to keep coupon sizes unchanged in the coming quarter).
The damage isn't severe and 30yr bonds aren't remotely as relevant to MBS as 10yr Notes, or even 5yr Notes for that matter. Whereas 30's are a bit over a bp higher, 10's are a bit over a bp lower. Fannie 3.5s are up 5 ticks to 101-27.
There is no significant scheduled data on tap for today, though the Leading Indicators index will print at 10am. Based on yesterday's news, trading, and technicals, this morning's sideways grind is to be expected. More sincere movement likely requires more sincere data coming tomorrow and Friday. 2.67% - 2.59% in 10yr yields is the line in the sand, beyond which, we'd consider movement to be sincere.
The damage isn't severe and 30yr bonds aren't remotely as relevant to MBS as 10yr Notes, or even 5yr Notes for that matter. Whereas 30's are a bit over a bp higher, 10's are a bit over a bp lower. Fannie 3.5s are up 5 ticks to 101-27.
There is no significant scheduled data on tap for today, though the Leading Indicators index will print at 10am. Based on yesterday's news, trading, and technicals, this morning's sideways grind is to be expected. More sincere movement likely requires more sincere data coming tomorrow and Friday. 2.67% - 2.59% in 10yr yields is the line in the sand, beyond which, we'd consider movement to be sincere.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Victor Burek : "didn't the loan officer survey just show lender standards easing?"
Jason Anker : "WTH is up with DU - 32/40 dti @ 95% with a 729 fico = Refer??? since when!!!!"
Brent Borcherding : "It's 78% of original value, a new appraisal has no added benefit unless its part of a refinance."
Matt Hodges : "OR sales price, lower"
Ray Leone : "Is removal of MIP on FHA based upon 78% LTV on the original appraised value?"
John Rodgers : "Contingent Liability is the same thing as "secured borrowed funds". You'll see this in some of your LOS systems as a source of down payment. "
Dustin McAlister : "Opinion question. If a bank who is correspondant has LO's that receive leads from 2 different sources, one a rate table like Zillow and the other outbound like Lending Tree, sit in the same office and have different pricing. One higher than the other, is that in compliance. Isn't the rule pretty much if someone calls in they should get the same pricing from every LO? "
Victor Burek : "most hard data, retail sales, home sales have been weak, only the survey data like pmi, ism have been better"
Victor Burek : "probably, I think it will go in our favor"
Tony Cardinal : "Would you float into Friday?"
Tony Cardinal : "Vb. do you think that will help Thursday and Fridays numbers in our favor?"
Victor Burek : "Layoff intentions are picking up, totaling 45,730 in October and swollen by a mass layoff notice from Merck. Challenger's count has averaged more than 45,500 the past 3 months vs just under 38,000 in the prior 4 months."
Andy Pada : "Challenger Report may be our Northern Star."
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