The Week Ahead: Relatively Quiet; FOMC Countdown Begins

After Friday's Employment Situation Report posed just as many questions as it cleared up, we now move on to the countdown for the next watershed event for bond markets (probably), which is a week and a half away with the September 18th FOMC Meeting.  It's there that the Fed is still seen as most likely to announce a reduction in the pace of asset purchases, though if they judge things to be too shaky economically, the so-called 'tapering' announcement could still come at the October or December meeting.

13 out of 18 Primary Dealers agree that September will be the month.  There's no magic rule that says Primary Dealer survey responses are tantamount to crystal balls, but there is hard evidence that the Fed is cognizant of market expectations and will do their best to align the policy announcement with those expectations, as long as doing so doesn't detract from their dual mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability.

If there was a saving grace for the afternoon weakness on Friday (mostly seen in Treasuries whereas MBS managed to head more sideways), it's the fact that this week brings a new round of Treasury Auctions.  This time it's 3's, 10's, and 30's on  Tuesday through Thursday.  Those make up for a bulk of the events on the first three days of the week as nothing much else is a movement-inspiring consideration.  Thursday's Jobless Claims and 30yr Auction are the only two headliners for that day, but Friday brings more important data.

Perhaps our only economic-data-based "big ticket" item of the week--the only one that could offer a course correction on tapering likelihood--is the Retail Sales Report on Friday.  It's joined by the not-insignificant (not anymore anyway) Producer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment.  Until things pick up mid-week, it's a traders' paradise (or purgatory) as market participants will take most cues from the actions of other market participants.