The Week Ahead: Lots of Data and Fed Speakers

By: Matthew Graham

The week ahead is very different from the week past.  Fed speakers will be out in greater numbers and economic data arrives in abundance.  Top that off with Treasury Auctions, 'Month-End,' Labor Day weekend, next week's exceptionally important Jobs Report, and this has the potential to be an unusually busy 'last week in August.'  Working against all that will be the fact that it's the last week in August--a time where actual people are busier in the United States than financial markets.

Talking about the relative level of activity in financial markets as it relates to summertime slowness is a bit misleading though.  Trading levels can certainly move and lenders' rate sheets can certainly be affected.  The distinction is only really relevant when next week comes into play.  Whatever sort of volume and volatility seen this week can be completely undone or outdone after next week's Employment Situation Report, which will be the last big vote on the tapering time frame.

There's a relevant report every day this week, with Durable Goods leading off this morning at 8:30am ET.  Treasury Auctions begin on Tuesday and the data focal point will be Consumer Confidence at 10am.  Wednesday's Pending Home Sales report presents a chance to confirm the abysmal New Home Sales data that gave bond markets a boost on Friday.  The next morning brings the first revision to Q2 GDP as well a Jobless Claims.  Friday finishes strong with Consumer Spending, Chicago PMI, and Consumer Sentiment.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Aug 26 2013 - Fri, Aug 30 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Aug 26

08:30

Durable Goods

Jul

%

-4.0

+3.9

Tue, Aug 27

09:00

Case-Shiller Home Prices

Jun

%

1.0

1.0

10:00

Consumer confidence

Aug

--

79.0

80.3

13:00

2-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

34.0

--

Wed, Aug 28

07:00

MBA Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

450.4

10:00

Pending sales change

Jul

%

0.0

-0.4

13:00

5yr Treasury Auction

--

bl

35.0

--

Thu, Aug 29

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

330

336

08:30

GDP Preliminary

Q2

%

2.2

1.7

13:00

7-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

29.0

--

Fri, Aug 30

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Jul

%

0.3

0.5

09:45

Chicago PMI

Aug

--

53.0

52.3

09:55

Consumer Sentiment

Aug

--

80.5

80.0