The Week Ahead: Limited Data Focuses on Housing; Punctuated by FOMC Minutes

One of the most interesting things about last week was the phenomenon of 'status quo' data serving to inspire heavy selling in both stocks and bonds (see chart below).  One way to interpret this would be that the data wasn't bad enough to imply a delayed timeline for tapering.  In other words, even with the ill effects of tapering expectations in play, data still managed to be status quo (some of it was noticeably better than status quo).  The fact that yields continued higher simply on this reiteration of September tapering prospects begs the question: how high will rates be before 'Sept-taper' is fully priced in?

The other way to read this phenomenon would be with an eye toward the current week.  It's the last extremely slow calendar week before Labor day (next week is packed), suggesting that market participants may have been heading for the exits at various stages last week.  We may not have a satisfactory opportunity to decide which perspective makes more sense until Wednesday's FOMC Minutes.  Wednesday is also the first day of this week that we get any meaningful economic data with Existing Home Sales released that morning.   New Home Sales report on Friday with Jobless Claims and Home Prices on Thursday.