The Day Ahead: Retail Sales to Set The Tone

Last week was one of those perfectly slow weeks that looked like it would be slow ahead of time and didn't disappoint.  It was also "Shark Week" on Discovery Channel, prompting the comparison of the week's volatility to the swimming range of the Remora (the small fish that suction-cup their foreheads to sharks and other larger, highly mobile aquatic species).  At the time, 2.55 percent in 10yr yields seemed to be the extent of the range (with 2.67 on the other side).  That's interesting because yields never made it to 2.55, but yesterday on the first day of a week that promises more movement, there was one final opportunity for the Remora to swim where it wanted before the week's first Shark showed up.  

Obligatory MBS Chart for the sake of comparison:

So not only did we see our 2.55, but yields then moved all the way back up to 2.62, roughly the mid-point of the aforementioned 2.55-2.67 range.  It's as if markets sought out some central perch in order to better follow whatever movement is suggested by Retail Sales--the first big shark of this week.  The consensus is for a slight decline from 0.4 percent previously to 0.3 percent this time but for an increase from 0.0 to 0.4 percent when auto sales are excluded.  The latter is the subject of the following chart (monthly Retail Sales/ex-autos in red with a 12-month moving average in white):

There's other data on tap as well, but it's inconsequential even when not in the shadow of Retail Sales (Import/Export Prices and Business Inventories).  More interesting than the balance of the morning's events will be seeing how many traders show up for Retail Sales.  This is an interesting day in that it could do a lot to foreshadow the participation level for the rest of the week.  In that regard, Retail Sales can't help but set the tone as even an uneventful response would help set more of an uneventful tone than we otherwise might have expected heading into the end of the week.