The Week Ahead: More Meaningful Economic Data
Coming off a week that was uneventful by any standard, the week ahead is notably different in terms of its more robust economic data offerings. The reports on tap aren't the be all end all market movers that the Employment Situation and FOMC Announcement may be in September, but they begin a gradual acceleration toward a "yes or no" consensus on September tapering. Last week didn't add anything at all to that debate and although we don't yet know if the current week will, it has a much better chance given what's on the calendar.
Monday brings only the monthly read on the Federal Budget in the afternoon--not a market mover. Things pick up on Tuesday with one of the week's most significant reports--Retail Sales--in the morning, along with Import/Export prices. July Retail Sales is one of the few pieces of non-employment-related economic data that may materially affect the consensus on tapering. Whether or not it does, the rest of the week's data would have to at least not "oppose" its suggestion.
Wednesday is slightly slower with only the Producer Price Index in the 8:30am time slot. Thursday is the busiest morning of the week with the Consumer Price Index, Empire State Manufacturing, and Jobless Claims all in the 8:30am slot. Industrial Production is out at 9:15am followed by Philly Fed and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am. Friday is slightly less busy, but contains the currently important Housing Starts numbers as well as Consumer Sentiment and Productivity/Costs.
Retail Sales is the nearest term focal point of the week. European data is more of a factor on Wednesday, but more so if it accelerates any trend kicked off by Tuesday's domestic data. Thursday and Friday's data would need to be more cohesive in its message to prompt big moves, but there are at least two reports on both mornings that have market-moving punch if they beat or miss by enough (Claims and Philly Fed on Thursday. Housing Starts and Sentiment on Friday).
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Week Of Mon, Aug 12 2013 - Fri, Aug 16 2013 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
|
Mon, Aug 12 |
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|
14:00 |
Federal budget, $ |
Jul |
bl |
-96.0 |
116.5 |
|
Tue, Aug 13 |
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|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
Jul |
% |
0.8 |
-0.2 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
Jul |
% |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Jul |
% |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
Jul |
% |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Jun |
% |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
Wed, Aug 14 |
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|
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
495.4 |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices mm |
Jul |
% |
0.3 |
0.8 |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Jul |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Thu, Aug 15 |
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|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Jul |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
335 |
333 |
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Aug |
-- |
10.00 |
9.46 |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Jul |
% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Jul |
% |
78.0 |
77.8 |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Business Index |
Aug |
-- |
15.0 |
19.8 |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Aug |
-- |
57 |
57 |
|
Fri, Aug 16 |
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|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Jul |
ml |
0.910 |
0.836 |
|
08:30 |
Labor costs Revised |
Q2 |
% |
1.0 |
-4.3 |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Jul |
ml |
0.935 |
0.918 |
|
08:30 |
Productivity Revised |
Q2 |
% |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Aug |
-- |
85.5 |
85.1 |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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