MBS MID-DAY: Slightly Weaker Since ISM, Prices Grind Sideways

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
On the approach, the current week looked as if it would have precious little to offer by way of suggesting the next--if any--shift in the bigger picture momentum.  That's certainly been the case so far with the first and most significant piece of economic data this week coming in much stronger-than expected at 10am this morning and with markets barely budging.  The impact of the ISM Non-manufacturing Index was noticeable but small.  MBS had generally, slowly improved from weaker opening levels into the 10am report time and generally, slowly weakened following the report.  Both Fannie 4.0s and 3.5s avoided any sharper sell-offs and leveled off before breaking below morning lows.  10yr yields ratcheted quickly higher by about 2 bps and have flatlined since then.  Nothing else is on tap for today.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
96-26 : -0-08
FNMA 3.5
100-23 : -0-08
FNMA 4.0
103-28 : -0-03
FNMA 4.5
106-01 : -0-02
GNMA 3.0
97-25 : -0-08
GNMA 3.5
101-25 : -0-07
GNMA 4.0
104-15 : -0-03
GNMA 4.5
106-10 : +0-00
FHLMC 3.0
96-15 : -0-09
FHLMC 3.5
100-14 : -0-08
FHLMC 4.0
103-20 : -0-06
FHLMC 4.5
105-14 : -0-04
Pricing as of 11:06 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.

10:11AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Weaker Following ISM Data
With only a few minutes having passed since the ISM Non-Manufacturing report, it's too soon to assume negative reprice risk for the few lenders who could be affected by it, but we're heading in that direction. 10yr yields are up to 2.65, Fannie 4.0s are down 4 ticks to 103-27, and Fannie 3.5s are down 9 ticks to 100-22. These moves lower in MBS from the pre-data levels are just on the edge of suggesting negative reprice risk for lenders who were already out with pricing. There's no convicted move straight through to lower levels and both active MBS coupons are holing near their lows of the day (or slightly better) for now.
10:05AM  :  ECON: ISM Services Index Much Higher Than Expected
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.0 vs 53.0 forecast
- Prices Paid 60.1 vs 52.5 previously
- Business Activity 60.4 vs 53.3 forecast
- New orders 57.7 vs 50.8 forecast
- Employment 53.2 vs 54.7 in June

- Market Reaction: Treasuries move higher in yield to 2.644 currently. MBS would like to follow the sell-off but are too illiquid to do so just yet (though it's probably coming).

In July, the NMI™ registered 56 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 43rd consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in July registered 60.4 percent, 8.7 percentage points higher than the 51.7 percent registered in June. This month's reading reflects the highest reading for the index since December 2012, when the index registered 60.8 percent. Twelve industries reported increased business activity, and four industries reported decreased activity for the month of July. Comments from respondents include: "Large projects starting" and "Volumes are slightly higher, mostly due to housing."

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 12th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 53.2 percent, which reflects a decrease of 1.5 percentage points when compared to the 54.7 percent registered in June. Twelve industries reported increased employment, and four industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Employment ramp up" and "Adding staff in anticipation of new store openings."
9:13AM  :  Slow Morning and Overnight Session; Waiting on ISM
The overnight session was exceptionally quiet for Treasuries with 10's trading a narrow 2.62-2.60 range. European data provided a few gentle cues with the most recent (5am) Eurozone Retail Sales coming in at -0.5 vs -0.6 forecasts. That's not quite enough of a beat to blame for the moderate weakness we've seen since then, but we've seen it just the same.

10's have risen to 2.63 through the first hour of domestic trading though MBS are faring a bit better, down only 2 ticks in Fannie 4.0s to 103-29. Fannie 3.5s are down 6 ticks at 100-25--still outperforming Treasuries just slightly.

There's only one piece of significant data today (also the most significant of the week) at 10am this morning with ISM Non-Manufacturing. The consensus is for a PMI reading of 53.0 vs 52.2 previously.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Scott Valins  :  "they'll be plenty of opportunity to get below 2.62 before next NFP"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "we stay above that and we might as well wait until the August 21 FOMC meeting"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "2.62 is our line in the sand"
Ted Rood  :  "at least Friday's gains are intact."
David Rudnick  :  "I thought the weak NFP would have given us more... especially with the later fed talk. What do I know huh"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM NON-MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 53.2 IN JULY VS 54.7 IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI HIGHEST SINCE MATCHING FEBRUARY READING "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS INDEX 57.7 IN JULY VS 50.8 IN JUNE "
Ted Rood  :  "That's not going to help us."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX 60.4 IN JULY (CONSENSUS 53.3) VS 51.7 IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PRICES PAID INDEX 60.1 IN JULY VS 52.5 IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM REPORT ON U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWS PMI 56.0 IN JULY (CONSENSUS 53.0) VS 52.2 IN JUNE"
Michael Gillani  :  "If you factor debt payments like mortgage, auto, cc, utilities and discretionary spending, that isn't that much."
Ted Rood  :  "Guess it depends on the definition of consumer spending. I always assumed it was more discretionary....."
Victor Burek  :  "if that includes rent or mortgage payment, easily"
Ted Rood  :  "Snippet from Gallup consumer spending piece below: "The polling agency found that "self-reported" daily consumer spending was $89 in July, unchanged from the $90 of June and May." So, most people blow $90/day??"
Victor Burek  :  "so far so good"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "2.62 needs to hold"

Read what our user's have to say about MBS Live on LinkedIn.
» Start a two week free trial of MBS Live.