The Day Ahead: Consumer Sentiment and Exit Signs

There are two things that traders may focus on today: Consumer Sentiment data and Exit signs.  That's not anything to do with exiting a trading position, but actual, physical exit signs.  OK, so most probably already know how to get out, but anyone drained from a week of boredom might find it easier just to look for the little green or red E.X.I.T.   Come to think of it, Consumer Sentiment isn't going to change the BIG picture in any meaningful way.  While it can can certainly cause some movement if it deviates greatly from the 84.0 consensus, these deviations are less frequently seen during the "final" reading (which is what today's is) compared to the "preliminary" reading.   That's at 9:55am and beyond that, there's just the small Fed Treasury buying scheduled for 10:15-11:00am in 25-30yr space.  Things will be pretty dead after that, if not before.

Despite the cynicism, there's no reason that movements couldn't be positive or negative enough to make this Friday cloudier or brighter in terms of mortgage rates or MBS, but backing away from the microscope even a little bit suggests that which has been suggested as early as July 11th: this is a range-trade consolidation ahead of FOMC/NFP at the end of the month.  The most likely technical targets for the range trade have increasingly been confirmed as 2.62 and 2.46 in terms of 10yr yields and extrapolate roughly to 102-24 and 104-10 in Fannie 4.0 MBS (with nice tendency to bounce at 103-16 in between).  If these boundaries are broken in anything other than late-day illiquidity, it might mean something.