The Day Ahead: Data Increases, but Enough to Matter?

Whereas Tuesday stood out on the calendar as the least significant day of the week in terms of the scheduled data on tap combined with the least important Treasury auction, today's session brings more data to the table (and more relevant) along with the most relevant Treasury auction of the week.  There remains the problem of trees falling in the woods.  In terms of financial markets, if data comes in significantly stronger or weaker, and no one's around to trade it, does it move markets?  Better yet, does that movement matter?

While all market movement matters to some degree, the kind we're getting so far this week arguably matters less--especially considering 10's are grinding along the key inflection point we've been discussing since before the July 5th NFP print (2.46% in 10s).  The analogous level is 104-10 in Fannie 4.0s.

In short, the charts above paint a picture of two quasi-frantic melt-downs that both regained composure and asymptotically approached their resistance levels.  Today brings New Home Sales at 10am--a somewhat relevant report, but not enough to challenge longer term momentum (unless it's completely wacky...  Even then, the outlying nature would be questionable).  Similarly, the 5yr auction at 1pm probably isn't up to the task either, but here we are again discussing movement that is highly unlikely to occur with sufficient participation in place to be overly relevant to next week's trading.