The Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes And Treasury Auctions

After Friday's wild ride, the first two days back this week contain precious little by way of data and events to inform the trade.  Considering Wednesday brings the 10yr Auction, FOMC Minutes, and a late speech from Bernanke, that leaves Monday and Tuesday with two paths to volatility.  Either we'll see more market participants returning  from vacations to actively trade the post-NFP swing before Wednesday or those two days will have looked like good ones to tack on to the vacation planning, leaving the door open for volatility due to thinner markets (fewer traders and less nimble positions mean it takes less conviction to move prices).

The only meaningful economic reports of the week will be on the final two days of the week with Jobless Claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.  Also of note are the Treasury auctions with this week's cycle being the more relevant 3, 10, and 30yr variety.  That gives Tuesday a bit more bite, at least in the afternoon (because without the 3yr auction, Tuesday would be completely dead).  That also means markets are coping with the need to accommodate Treasury supply through Thursday at 1pm--a fact that may have contributed to weakness on Friday or that may allow for some sort of "relief" on Thursday in the event that bond markets are still on the ropes by then.

From there, attention may turn more towards the following week with stronger data offerings (including Retail Sales on Monday) and Bernanke's Humphrey Hawkins testimonies before the House and Senate.  A week after that, we'll get July's FOMC Announcement.  The implication here is something to the tune of "no rest for the weary," as there are key FOMC events every week for the next three, building to a head on July 31st (and then possibly another head 2 days later when the next NFP hits).  To recap--from the first week in July to the first week in August--that's: NFP, FOMC/Bernanke, Bernanke(Senate)/Bernanke(House), FOMC, NFP.  There may be other things happening as well, but even that's enough to make the rest of July seem awfully short and potentially as exciting (for better or worse) as the previous July when 10's hit their all-time lows.