The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Home Sales, and Philly Fed
It will be hard for today not to have something of an anticlimactic feel after seeing another nail driven into the QE coffin that magically appeared on our doorstep on May 3rd (because that was the NFP day that suddenly validated Bernanke's March 20th outlook on tapering, etc... Get caught up HERE if you missed it, or see THIS if you need help explaining the massive swings in rates). Would today's collection of data even be enough to counteract any of the decisions that have seemingly already been made? Probably not, but data remains important in assessing the staying power of yesterday's coffin-nail. The best tests are obviously the monthly Jobs reports (heard those could be market movers...) but the broader picture isn't inconsequential by any means.
To that end, we have Jobless Claims today in the 8:30am time slot vying for the title of "most relevant" along with the Philly Fed Index at 10am. Claims are expected to come in at 340k vs 334k last time and the consensus for Philly Fed is -2.0 vs -5.2 previously. Also at 10am, but slightly less likely to move the needle (except in the case of a massive deviation from expectations) is Existing Home Sales, seen at 5.0mln vs 4.97 mln previously.
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Week Of Mon, Jun 17 2013 - Fri, Jun 21 2013 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
|
Mon, Jun 17 |
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|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jun |
-- |
-0.50 |
-1.43 |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jun |
-- |
45 |
44 |
|
Tue, Jun 18 |
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|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
May |
ml |
0.924 |
0.853 |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
May |
ml |
0.980 |
1.005 |
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
May |
% |
0.1 |
-0.4 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
May |
% |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI yy, nsa |
May |
% |
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
Wed, Jun 19 |
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|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
670.7 |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
-- |
4.15 |
|
14:00 |
FOMC Announcement |
n/a |
% |
-- |
0.25 |
|
14:00 |
FOMC Forecasts |
n/a |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
14:30 |
Bernanke Press Conference |
n/a |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Jun 20 |
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|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
340 |
334 |
|
08:58 |
Markit PMI |
Jun |
-- |
52.8 |
52.3 |
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
May |
ml |
5.01 |
4.97 |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Business Index |
Jun |
-- |
-0.2 |
-5.2 |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr TIPS auction |
-- |
bl |
7.0 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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