The Day Ahead: Limited Data, but Interesting Treasury Auction

By: Matthew Graham

As we discussed yesterday morning, the afternoon's 3yr Treasury auction stood a chance to garner the first significant reaction to a 2 or 3yr auction in several years.  Surprisingly enough, it did just that, but in a strange way.  The auction was weak, which can either suggest "bond market weakness" in general, or more subtlly suggest "bond market preference shifting toward longer duration."  When all was said and done, markets traded with both of those possibilities in mind, first moving universally weaker--even in MBS and 10's--but then with the long end rallying relative to the short end. 

Headlines out of the ECB and gyrations in Forex may be more in play than the hopeful notion that the yield curve is setting up for a moderately epic (if brief) round of flattening, but either way, we'll know a lot more about that after today's 10yr Auction (and even more after tomorrow's 30yr).  10's are RIGHT on the edge of a few different trends, ready to go either way (and as far as bond bulls are concerned, greatly in need of a break back below 2.18 to set up in better position for next week's FOMC events.

MBS are similarly at the exteme end of the recent trading range, but thankfully can still say they did not make a new low yesterday even after the roll (from June to July coupon pricing) was factored in.  Even if there had been a break lower on this chart, it wouldn't have spoken to any organic weakness in MBS, but from a long term technical standpoint, it's better than nothing.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Jun 9 2013 - Fri, Jun 13 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Jun 10

10:00

Employment Trends

May

--

Em

111.7

Tue, Jun 11

10:00

Wholesale sales mm

Apr

%

0.0

-1.3

10:00

Wholesale inventories mm

Apr

%

0.2

0.4

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

32.0

--

Wed, Jun 12

07:00

MBA Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

638.7

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

--

4.07

13:00

10yr Treasury Auction

--

bl

21.0

--

14:00

Federal budget, $

May

bl

-110.0

112.9

Thu, Jun 13

08:30

Import prices mm

May

%

0.0

-0.5

08:30

Export prices mm

May

%

0.0

-0.7

08:30

Retail sales mm

May

%

0.3

0.1

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

345

346

10:00

Business inventories mm

Apr

%

0.3

0.0

13:00

30-Yr Treasury auction

--

bl

13.0

--

Fri, Jun 14

08:30

Current account (Trade Gap)

Q1

bl

-109.0

-110.4

08:30

Producer prices, core yy

May

%

1.7

1.7

08:30

Producer prices, core mm

May

%

0.1

0.1

09:15

Industrial output mm

May

%

0.2

-0.5

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

May

%

77.9

77.8

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Jun

--

84.5

84.5

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"