The Day Ahead: Economic Data Deluge, Part 2; Chance to Confirm Bounce Part 1

If the presence of greater amounts of economic data was a benefit for bond markets on Wednesday (and we're not sure that it was), then Thursday has even greater potential to confirm or reject that potential correlation.  The benefit of Wednesday's economic data can be questioned because bond markets nearly had a melt-down heading into the PM hours, and they weren't saved by data.  MBS and Treasuries both caught solid technical support as they revisited their weakest levels from the previous session.  For the first time in 9 sessions, MBS did NOT make a new low (even though that seemed like a probability on several occasions)!

That's all well and good, but will it continue to be the case today?  That depends more on data today than it did yesterday.  Yesterday's data didn't really have the same street cred that some of today's reports have.  The weakest link is CPI; not expecting much there, and Housing Starts are only slightly more capable of shaking things up, but at least that series has some recent experience with such a thing.  The bigger mover in the 8:30am slot is, of course, Jobless Claims (especially since it's a "survey week" for the next jobs report).  

Then at 10am, the Philly Fed Index stands as the second most likely suspect to shake things up or help reinforce yesterday's support.  Before making much headway in the other direction, bond markets will have to take out resistance levels that were at least as ominous as the floors were firm, if not more so.  10yr yields, for instance, have to cross this gap, and hold it:

If that's accomplished, it becomes increasingly likely that we've seen the extremes of the trading range heading in to next week's FOMC Minutes.