The Week Ahead: Light Calendar, Treasury Auctions, EU Headline Potential

Several weeks of relative silence out of the EU may soon be coming to an end.  Certainly, market moving European news hasn't been completely absent these past 3 weeks--simply far less dramatic.  Leading up to and following April's Employment Situation Report, domestic concerns wrested the spotlight for the Italy/Cyprus headlines that had been more en vogue until then. 

Italy's silence was on the calendar as markets thought they were waiting for the next president to be elected.  As it turns out, the existing president was RE-elected over the weekend--something thatReuters notes has never happened as the Presidential office is "largely ceremonial" under normal circumstances.  The abnormal circumstances in this case are those that keep the country mired in a political stalemate, threatening Italy's ability to pass legislation required to keep ECB money flowing.  

We're not expecting anything in particular out of Italy on a specific date.  Rather, the reelection of Napolitano suggests we'll have some sort of make it or break it moment for the formation of government.  Broad-based success would likely be negative for US bond markets, while failure (which is an equal possibility) would be neutral to positive for US Rates, implying another round of elections for Prime Minister.

With Italian headline possibilities on the side burner, the rest of the week is moderate to light in terms of data and events.  While there is a round of Treasury Auctions, it's the less intense "2, 5, 7yr" version, beginning with 2yr Notes on Tuesday.  The bulk of the economic data earlier in the week focuses on housing, mortgages, and home prices, with  Existing Home Sales leading off at 10am today.  The annual pace of sales is expected to edge just over 5 million (5.02 mil vs 4.98 mil previously), something of an inflection point in the longer run (especially if you factor out the First-Time-Homebuyer tax credit effect):