The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims May Set the Tone
Wednesday marked the third day in row bouncing back toward higher rates after Friday's NFP-inspired rally. The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting/announcement were of little help as they reinforced the reality that Fed asset purchases would likely be tapered some time in 2013. Bond markets mostly have such things priced in to current levels, but no one likes to have bad news repeated ad nauseum.
At this point, Treasuries have unwound not only last Friday's rally, but Thursday's as well. They're very close to the lower levels of a long term inflection zone in the lower-middle 1.8's (say 1.817 to 1.84). While the first three days of the week have been disheartening, there's one thing we haven't seen yet: economic data. We've had auction and Fed Minutes, but no top shelf econ data. That changes today, and the data in question is a recent fan favorite: Jobless Claims. The consensus is 365k after last week's 385k (a big component in the rally leading up to NFP). This is a double-edged sword in the morning hours as a bullish result could certainly cause further weakness from here, though a confirmation of the last report's weakness would probably help out quite a bit, even with the looming 30yr Auction at 1pm.
|
Week Of Mon, Apr 7 2013 - Fri, Apr 11 2013 |
|||||
|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
|
Mon, Apr 8 |
|||||
|
-- |
No significant scheduled data / MBS ROLL |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Tue, Apr 9 |
|||||
|
10:00 |
Wholesale sales mm |
Feb |
% |
1.5 |
-0.8 |
|
10:00 |
Wholesale inventories mm |
Feb |
% |
0.5 |
1.2 |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
32.0 |
-- |
|
Wed, Apr 10 |
|||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4189.0 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
790.7 |
|
13:00 |
10-Yr Treasury Auction |
-- |
bl |
21.0 |
-- |
|
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
Mar |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Apr 11 |
|||||
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
K |
365 |
385 |
|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
Mar |
% |
-0.5 |
1.1 |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Treasury auction |
-- |
bl |
13.0 |
-- |
|
Fri, Apr 12 |
|||||
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Mar |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
Mar |
% |
0.1 |
1.0 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Mar |
% |
0.1 |
1.1 |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Apr |
-- |
78.5 |
78.6 |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Feb |
% |
0.4 |
1.0 |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
|||||