The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims May Set the Tone

By: Matthew Graham

Wednesday marked the third day in row bouncing back toward higher rates after Friday's NFP-inspired rally.  The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting/announcement were of little help as they reinforced the reality that Fed asset purchases would likely be tapered some time in 2013.  Bond markets mostly have such things priced in to current levels, but no one likes to have bad news repeated ad nauseum.  

At this point, Treasuries have unwound not only last Friday's rally, but Thursday's as well.  They're very close to the lower levels of a long term inflection zone in the lower-middle 1.8's (say 1.817 to 1.84).  While the first three days of the week have been disheartening, there's one thing we haven't seen yet: economic data.  We've had auction and Fed Minutes, but no top shelf econ data.  That changes today, and the data in question is a recent fan favorite: Jobless Claims.  The consensus is 365k after last week's 385k (a big component in the rally leading up to NFP).  This is a double-edged sword in the morning hours as a bullish result could certainly cause further weakness from here, though a confirmation of the last report's weakness would probably help out quite a bit, even with the looming 30yr Auction at 1pm.  

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Apr 7 2013 - Fri, Apr 11 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Apr 8

--

No significant scheduled data / MBS ROLL

--

--

--

--

Tue, Apr 9

10:00

Wholesale sales mm

Feb

%

1.5

-0.8

10:00

Wholesale inventories mm

Feb

%

0.5

1.2

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

32.0

--

Wed, Apr 10

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

4189.0

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

790.7

13:00

10-Yr Treasury Auction

--

bl

21.0

--

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Mar

--

--

--

Thu, Apr 11

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

K

365

385

08:30

Import prices mm

Mar

%

-0.5

1.1

13:00

30-Yr Treasury auction

--

bl

13.0

--

Fri, Apr 12

08:30

Producer prices, core mm

Mar

%

0.2

0.2

08:30

Retail sales ex-autos mm

Mar

%

0.1

1.0

08:30

Retail sales mm

Mar

%

0.1

1.1

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Apr

--

78.5

78.6

10:00

Business inventories mm

Feb

%

0.4

1.0

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"