MBS RECAP: Ides Of March Not As Scary As Billed
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
MBS asked today's quadruple witching session: "et tu Friday?" but got the simple response: "nah, we're cool." So MBS just got up and walked away--higher in altitude in fact--with Fannie 3.0s up 10 at 102-24! Perhaps the Ides of March are at work in a different way. After all, when the senate gathers in Rome on the 15th day of March with the intention of sorting out political turmoil, drama is in no light supply. Shakespeare knew this and so too may modern financial markets (that reference to the Senate gathering in Rome wasn't from 44BC, it was TODAY). No market moving headlines today, but it does mark the first time Italian parliament has been back in session since the election drama. Markets knew they'd be out for a while and have likely been enjoying their mostly drama free European headline environment. Maybe an underlying "risk-on" vibe is ideally drying up, perfectly in time for Quadruple Witching, Italian politics, and a range-trade ahead of next week's FOMC.
Whatever the case, today was a good day. 9:30am was the first big shift as early rebalancing trades saw money flow out of stocks and into bonds. 9:55's Consumer Sentiment miss further fueled the "risk-off" momentum that was already building thanks to the rebalancing tradeflows. Everything (and by that, we're talking about absolutely every minute of remaining bond market action in the day) was a completely uneventful sideways grind with a mindful eye on Treasury resistance levels (technically testing a break of 2.0, but taking a lead-off at 1.9912 today). MBS approved, and continued to be more than willing to keep pace and even moderately outperform. Gameplan: the Italian headline scanner is fired up again. It may or may not bear fruit, but certainly next Wednesday's FOMC festivities suggest themselves as a near-term focal point.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
2:45PM :
ALERT ISSUED:
MBS Stretch To Higher Highs, Reprice Potential Persists
Ahead of the 3pm Treasury close, 10yr TSYs are retesting their morning lows at 1.9929 and S&P's have fallen off 3-4 points ahead of "rebalancing" (can imply high volatility in the power hour from 3-4pm).
MBS are suddenly popular since mid-week and they've been outperforming ever since. In high volatility, lower-liquidity environments like this afternoon (lower liquidity for MBS due to light supply), we can get a bit of mini snow-ball of price gains. It's worked out well for us today with Fannie 3.0s up 10 ticks to 102-23.
Most lenders have already repriced, but such levels leave the door open for others (and perhaps some "round 2's"). There's no telling what will happen after 4pm though. It's good for now. If you're sensing or seeing increased locks at a particular lender, beware the pipeline control reprice from the few lenders that have been known to do such things.
MBS are suddenly popular since mid-week and they've been outperforming ever since. In high volatility, lower-liquidity environments like this afternoon (lower liquidity for MBS due to light supply), we can get a bit of mini snow-ball of price gains. It's worked out well for us today with Fannie 3.0s up 10 ticks to 102-23.
Most lenders have already repriced, but such levels leave the door open for others (and perhaps some "round 2's"). There's no telling what will happen after 4pm though. It's good for now. If you're sensing or seeing increased locks at a particular lender, beware the pipeline control reprice from the few lenders that have been known to do such things.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Bill Laffey : "REPRICE: 3:30 PM - Cole Taylor Better"
Roger Moore : "REPRICE: 3:27 PM - NYCB Better"
Rob Clark : "Their second."
Rob Clark : "REPRICE: 1:44 PM - Provident Funding Better"
Ken Crute : "REPRICE: 1:18 PM - Everbank Better"
Steve Chizmadia : "REPRICE: 11:56 AM - Sun West Mortgage Better"
John McClellan : "I spoke with USDA in our area and they say you only have to have it submitted in final status to them by the date."
Joe Ridings : "yes Jason, thats the issue. Realtor wants answers before they write the contract. i told her she is gambling. no one really knows "
Jason Anker : "Joe taking a new USDA loan today in an area being eliminated - very risky. Process as it was explained to me was that you needed USDA commitment prior to 3/27 or no loan for you. Similar to FHA case number prior to changes. You can close after chaneg as long as you have commit in hand prior to change"
Jason Adams : "REPRICE: 11:48 AM - Fifth Third Mortgage Better"
Lynn ONeal : "REPRICE: 11:47 AM - Franklin American Better"
Matt Hodges : "one of my Realtors is sweating it right now.. supposed to close 3/26"
Ira Selwin : "Memo from PHH today - Unless Congress passes a bill to extend the use of the current USDA maps by March 27th 2013, the eligible geographic areas may be significantly reduced on March 28th. Should this occur, over 900 counties will no longer be eligible to participate in the USDA program. At this time, USDA has still not released the maps reflective of these potential county reductions. "
Joe Ridings : "new maps will kill several deals here. Realtors are curently negotiating but want to know as we all do"
Jeff Anderson : "REPRICE: 11:44 AM - Chase Better"
Ken Crute : "my understanding ,was that they have postponed the line redraw so I will say its True "
Joe Ridings : "just yesterday the RD director in our state didnt know"
Jason Anker : "my entire area is eliminated based on new maps"
Jason Anker : "I've heard that too but just rumor as far as I can tell. I've put USDA in a timeout for now, too risky till further notice"
Joe Ridings : "anyone hear that USDA postponed redrawing lines of property eligiblity for 6 months? rumor or true?"
Bill Laffey : "REPRICE: 11:41 AM - Provident Funding Better"
Tom Schwab : "REPRICE: 11:40 AM - AMC Better"
Eric Franson : "REPRICE: 11:38 AM - Wells Fargo Better"
Dez Loessberg : "Good insight MG! My opinion is that it's green for St Patrick's! On the lock/float sentiment, I am locking the ones down I can early next week in defense for next week's FOMC minutes...im tired of being on the bad side of floating into tape bombs anymore..."
Victor Burek : "floating, dont like to lock on Fridays..also to allow some time to see if this rally can extend...we have pretty solid support at 2.07"
Matthew Carver : "Speaking of sentiment, what’s the lock / float sentiment for today and brief reasoning behind it?"
Clayton Sandy : "REPRICE: 11:17 AM - Suntrust Better"
Matthew Graham : "couple considerations though MC: First, S&Ps already moved lower as fast as they have any other time since 2/28, and in good volume out of the gate (which is now waning). Additionally, the stock lever has been relatively less-connected than usual since last Friday. A big move lower today would likely only provide marginal incremental benefit for 10's that are already struggling to break definitively into 1.99's. Finally, from an MBS standpoint, slow and steady wins the race. With 10's down 4"
Steve Chizmadia : "Liking the short term channel that seems to have been formed this week when looking at the advanced charts. "
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