The Day Ahead: ECB Announcement, More Employment Data, DeMarco Speaks

As far as standard-issue economic reports are concerned, Thursday brings only the Weekly Jobless Claims figures, still seen to be elevated but falling after Hurricane Sandy.  There's also the Challenger Job Cut report, but it's not as widely followed as most employment metrics and has a tendency to deviate from NFP readings to a much greater degree than ADP's private payroll data. 

Standard-issue data aside, if Wednesday was any indication, markets may once again be willing to take the morning cues from European markets where yesterday's Spanish debt auction flopped and ushered bond markets to morning gains in the US.  Too, some measure of correlation was seen between stocks and bonds though the latter remains more even-keeled by a long-shot. 

Wednesday's eventual risk-on vs risk-off motivator was a series of Fiscal Cliff headlines, as well as an appearance by the Fiscal Cliff's close friend: the Debt Ceiling.  Stocks merely began toying with the idea of a sell-off after Senator Cantor said "nothing is going on" with the Fiscal Cliff negotiations along with Boehner who noted that the White House's proposals couldn't pass either house of Congress. 

But it was the Treasury's statement proposing the use of the "McConnell Provision" about 20 minutes later that kicked the stock sell-off into high gear (the McConnell provision would allow the president to request a debt ceiling increase and veto any subsequent rejection, effectively guaranteeing a debt ceiling increase (unless veto is overturned within 15 days by 2/3rds vote or some such thing.  Yes, this sounds weird to me too... but less weird if you read stuff like THIS).

Before US politicians are fully primped and made-up for Fiscal Cliff sound-bytes, ECB Pres Mario Draghi will already have been staring at himself in the mirror for 45 minutes, listening to Eye of The Tiger as he prepares for another Press Conference following an ECB Rate Decision.  The Announcement itself is at 7:45am with the presser at 8:30am--the same time that Jobless Claims hits.  FHFA's DeMarco will speak on the agency's current initiatives and priorities at a SIFMA conference at 1pm.