The Day Ahead: Last of the Week's Economic Data, but does Data Even Matter?

By: Matthew Graham

Wednesday brings the last of the week's economic data, borrowed from their regularly scheduled days to accommodate the holiday schedule.  Though markets are only fully closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, Friday's half day is more of a courtesy "housekeeping day" rather than a legitimate backdrop for thorough market participation.  As such, the Consumer Sentiment report that would normally arrive at 9:55am on Friday will instead join Jobless Claims (itself, displaced from their normal Thursday time slot) to comprise the most robust morning of economic data of the week.  Even the 10yr TIPS auction is moved up to 11:30am Eastern.

But if the first part of the week (and indeed, this seems true for many instances in the previous week) is any indication, economic data and events would have to speak quite loudly in order to trump tradeflows (various account types needing/wanting to adjust various positions for various reasons unrelated to the day's economic events), technicals (trading based upon the outright levels of the securities in question rather than the fundamental data that ostensibly speaks to their future prospects), and headline risk (both positive and negative "risk" associated with things like the potential ceasefire in the Middle east or the recent bailout deal for Greece).

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Nov 19 2012 - Fri, Nov 23 2012

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Nov 19

10:00

Existing home sales

Oct

ml

4.75

4.75

10:00

Exist. home sales % chg

Oct

%

0.0

-1.7

10:00

NAHB housing market indx

Nov

--

41

41

Tue, Nov 20

08:30

Housing starts number mm

Oct

ml

0.850

0.872

08:30

House starts mm: change

Oct

%

--

15.0

08:30

Building permits: number

Oct

ml

0.865

0.890

08:30

Build permits: change mm

Oct

%

--

11.1

Wed, Nov 21

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

864.9

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

4801.3

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

--

--

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Nov

--

84.5

84.9

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"