The Week Ahead: Holiday-Shortened and Light on Data

This week will be punctuated in the US, with a full closure on Thursday for Thanksgiving and an early close on Friday (2:00 PM ET).  The effects on markets can vary historically.  Last year, bond markets were drifting sideways near their best levels in just over two months and ended up adding marginally to those improvements whereas they were on the warpath to weaker and weaker levels in 2010 (though the more pronounced sell-off began in December).

On the approach, things are relatively similar to 2011 with yields low, sideways, and generally in limbo as to deciding on their favorite guidance-giver headed into the end of the year.  Contenders include the Fiscal Cliff in the US, the recent flare up of violence in the Middle East, and the ongoing saga of the Greek debt drama and its implications for the broader Euro zone.  The latter is likely the easiest to discuss and assess given that Euro zone Finance Ministers will meet on Tuesday to determine whether or not Greece's public sector creditors will need a restructuring before proceeding with the next tranche of bailout aid. 

The potential headlines regarding Fiscal Cliff and Mid-East tensions won't necessarily adhere to the sort of schedule as the potential news regarding Greece.  That means they're more likely to inspire volatility if they do make news this week.  Regarding the Fiscal Cliff, all we really have are a handful of positive comments from political leaders after meeting with the President this past week as well as the possibility that they'll work through the recess toward additional progress. 

Some of the week's news and data, however, is scheduled, though none of it worthy of any edge-of-seat anticipation.  Monday kicks off with Existing Home Sales and the NAHB's Housing Market Index.  Bernanke will speak on Tuesday afternoon following a slow morning of data with only Housing Starts at 8:30am.  Wednesday is the busiest day of the week in terms of scheduled events with Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment, Markit PMI, and leading indicators all crammed into the unfamiliar day thanks to the Holiday.  There's nothing significant scheduled on Friday, but depending on any meaningful developments in Europe and Asia on Thursday, it can still see a decent amount of volatility.