MBS RECAP: Moderate Gains And Finally Outperforming Treasuries
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Third day of the week is apparently the charm for MBS... Tuesday and Wednesday saw a level of spread-widening versus Treasuries that bordered on alarming. In other words, 10yr Treasuries were holding their ground while MBS were losing it. Today it was MBS's turn to outperform as Fannie 3.0s added 5 ticks vs unchanged Treasuries. That only makes up for part of the relative weakness of the past few days, but it's a start, and more importantly, stops the alarming trend. Morning data was largely expected to be weak due to Hurricane impact and was largely much weaker than even the downwardly revised expectations! That helped bond markets along into the noon hour whereupon they leveled off before breaking into 2-day highs.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
12:01PM :
ALERT ISSUED:
MBS, Treasuries At Best Levels As Stocks Swoon
The beat down goes on for equities markets as S&P's are at their worst levels since July 26th. MBS and Treasuries are at their best levels, well... since yesterday, but we'll take it! Both are near their two-day highs in price and for Treasuries particularly, this is clear-cut intermediate resistance level at 1.579 (hit perfectly on 11/9, 11/13, 11/14, and getting close today with 10's currently at 1.5826.
Keep in mind that trendlines can't tell us anything at all about what's going to happen in the future, but act as a tripwire of sorts, setting off some level of alarm when they're crossed. In other words, if 10's break below the 1.579 pivot, it's potentially significant, but would still require confirmation.
MBS are holding mostly within their own trendlines so far this morning with Fannie 3.0s up 5 ticks on the day to 104-29. This has been enough for one positive reprice so far and the shape of the gains is such that we might see a few additional reprices, but nothing spectacular at the moment.
Same reminder on trendlines for MBS... There's currently a trend-channel on the MBS chart, and while we HOPE it continues to hold, it's presence does not guarantee that. Rather, it simply serves as a line in the sand that might give us an early indication that today's uptrend is leveling off. Until then, the trend is our friend.
Keep in mind that trendlines can't tell us anything at all about what's going to happen in the future, but act as a tripwire of sorts, setting off some level of alarm when they're crossed. In other words, if 10's break below the 1.579 pivot, it's potentially significant, but would still require confirmation.
MBS are holding mostly within their own trendlines so far this morning with Fannie 3.0s up 5 ticks on the day to 104-29. This has been enough for one positive reprice so far and the shape of the gains is such that we might see a few additional reprices, but nothing spectacular at the moment.
Same reminder on trendlines for MBS... There's currently a trend-channel on the MBS chart, and while we HOPE it continues to hold, it's presence does not guarantee that. Rather, it simply serves as a line in the sand that might give us an early indication that today's uptrend is leveling off. Until then, the trend is our friend.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Jason York : "REPRICE: 2:22 PM - Fifth Third Mortgage Better"
Eric Franson : "REPRICE: 2:13 PM - Wells Fargo Better"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- BERNANKE SAYS HOUSEHOLDS' WORRIES OVER JOBS, HOUSING PRICES, ECONOMY KEEP POTENTIAL HOME BUYERS ON SIDELINES"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- BERNANKE SAYS HOUSING RECOVERY WILL HELP DETERMINE STRENGTH OF U.S. ECONOMIC RECOVERY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- BERNANKE SAYS LIKELY THAT 'PENDULUM HAS SWUNG TOO FAR' TOWARD OVERLY TIGHT LENDING STANDARDS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- BERNANKE SAYS FED WILL CONTINUE TO DO WHAT IT CAN TO SUPPORT U.S. HOUSING RECOVERY"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED'S BERNANKE SEES SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT IN HOUSING, BUT 'FAR FROM BEING OUT OF THE WOODS' "
Steve Chizmadia : "REPRICE: 12:30 PM - Sun West Mortgage Better"
Rob Clark : "REPRICE: 11:46 AM - Provident Funding Better"
Gaius Rossini : "the fha might announce mip increases along with the report though, at least pressure will increase on them to do so"
Gaius Rossini : "of course bachus' statement was not entirely accurate, they're not running out of money, it's just their capital reserve account is now negative. they still have 30 billion in their main account"
Gaius Rossini : "the actuarial report should be coming out later today or tomorrow."
Gaius Rossini : "BACHUS: FHA RUNNING OUT OF MONEY FOR FIRST TIME IN ITS HISTORY
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