The Week Ahead: Limited Data Includes Retail Sales, European Headlines

The week ahead is the last before domestic markets enter full-fledged "holiday mode."  That somewhat ironic considering that this week itself, is shortened by yesterday's Veteran's Day observance, but next week's Thanksgiving closure on Thursday and half-day on Friday mark the "beginning of the end" (of the year).   So why talk about it now? 

Apart from simply keeping an eye on the upcoming few weeks of economic events, the year-end time frame for 2012 is especially interesting as it will undoubtedly lead to increasingly heated debate, conjecture, analysis, and perhaps even a piece of news or two, regarding the Fiscal Cliff.  The Fiscal cliff is a generally depressing sort of thing for markets, and one that does more to keep interest rates low.

Combine this with the ongoing realizations that there are no quick fixes coming for Europe (Greece just won 2 more years to hit their debt targets) and global growth prospects continue to look like thye're in for a challenging time.  One of the biggest challenges--perhaps THE biggest challenge--that pervades the past 2-4 years is UNCERTAINTY.  There's always some level of uncertainty in financial markets, but the current problem is all-encompassing.  Europe has been bad enough, but now that we're entering the "end of year" psychology, the US stands ready to put on a similarly themed display over the Fiscal Cliff, where political posturing and ignorance threaten to make a huge problem out of a "big" one.

Markets and politicians alike were very likely waiting for the election before shifting gears on the Fiscal Cliff debate.  With that out of the way, Obama announced last week that he'd be meeting with congressional representatives this week and will hold a news conference on Wednesday.  Interestingly enough, this could be one of the highlights of the week (depending on what's said, of course) considering how dominant the Fiscal Cliff issue is quickly becoming.

Today's data is relatively non-existent, with only 3rd tier reports in the morning and the Federal budget at 2pm which is more of a house-keeping issue than a hotly anticipated market mover.  Wednesday has a few items that CAN potentially move markets in addition to the Fiscal Cliff press conference.  Retails Sales on Wednesday morning is likely the week's headline act in terms of economic reports, and is flanked by supporting actors, with the FOMC Minutes from the most recent meeting in the afternoon.  The pace of data mostly continues on Thursday, but will begin to wane by Friday.