MBS RECAP: Reasonably Resilient Day Ahead Of NFP, Despite Losses
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
As far as "down days" go, today's wasn't nearly as painful or as eventful as most can be. Fannie 3.0s are heading out less than a quarter of a point lower and most lender's rate sheets don't even reflect that drop. Bond markets in general came into the session in weaker territory with some citing better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data as the motivator. Beyond that, the technical landscape also suggested both the bounce into slightly weaker territory today and also jives well with our ability to hold ground ahead of tomorrow morning's NFP (The "nonfarm payrolls" component of the Employment Situation Report).
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
3:12PM :
MBS Languish Just Above Lows As NFP Looms
Really not much going on for MBS or Treasuries after the quick but determined bout of weakness at 11am. 10yr yields are just off their two day highs while MBS are right in line with yesterday's lows with Fannie 3.0s down 7 ticks at 104-22. They'd made it as low as 104-20 earlier in the day.
All in all, we get the sense that bond markets have traded very technically into tomorrow's NFP and next week's election. Today's ability to hold ground fairly well despite the losses speaks to that determination. However, reprice risk continues to linger, but would be more developed if we slip decidedly below 104-22.
All in all, we get the sense that bond markets have traded very technically into tomorrow's NFP and next week's election. Today's ability to hold ground fairly well despite the losses speaks to that determination. However, reprice risk continues to linger, but would be more developed if we slip decidedly below 104-22.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Jeff Statz : "No problem. CT, for example: http://gis.fema.gov/maps/dec_4087.pdf"
Jeff Statz : "Mike, I'd just reference it by map for a quick lookup. The disaster areas aren't declared by zip, so FEMA doesn't distinguish."
Mike Nondarakse : "Is there any way to look up a FEMA declared disaster area by zip code?"
Victor Burek : "way too many varibles with tomorrows report"
Victor Burek : "if your pricing is same as yesterday, i would lock"
Mike Drews : "you won't regret it."
Charles Beasley : "Common sence is telling me to lock ahead of it becasue of the seasonal workers that are hired around this time of year. "
Matt Hodges : "All of those are options, Charles"
Charles Beasley : "So what’s the general consensus for tomorrow, better, worse, or more of the same?"
Bryce Schetselaar : "REPRICE: 11:53 AM - Flagstar Worse"
Adam Quinones : "the point is...dont be surprised if rate sheets arent correlated to TBA levels."
Adam Quinones : "might also be funding issues."
Adam Quinones : "the new gfee is officially in play, month-end is a crazy time for secondary desks/post-closing (pipeline control), lots of loan fundings were pushed back bc of Sandy which increases the cost of hedging and puts more stress on capacity."
Matt Hodges : "these aren't normal days, plus election too close to call on Tuesday, justin"
Justin Harward : "Thanks. It's just much larger then I would expect."
Ken Crute : "some have posted similar pricing changes Justin, not just you "
Matt Hodges : "jobless claims slightly better, ADP print, tomorrow NFP, end of month extension costs from Sandy... myriad reasons"
Justin Harward : "Hi all. How is your pricing comparing today with yesterday? Mine is worse by .5 to .75 and I can't find a market justification. I'm wondering if its just us."
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