MBS RECAP: Uncannily Sideways Despite Higher Stocks And Treasury Yields
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
To say that MBS held a narrow trading range today would be an understatement. Even though Treasury yields and stocks moved gradually higher throughout the session, Fannie 3.0 MBS held between 104-27 and 104-31, a mere eighth of a point. The morning's economic data passed without much of a trace, which we'd fully expect from the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and TIC (Treasury International Capital) releases, but less so from the Industrial Production report. This continues to build a compelling cases that markets are very much tuned out with respect to the standard fare of domestic economic reports. Determining what markets are TUNED IN to is still a work in progress though a decent enough guess would be Thursday's EU Summit.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
2:03PM :
ALERT ISSUED:
Same Old Range-Bind Continues Despite Weaker Treasuries
Volume has picked up a bit day over day, but has died down in the PM hours, as per usual. Stock prices and Treasury yields have slowly crept higher throughout the day, but the bias for MBS remains exceptionally sideways and contained.
In terms of Fannie 3.0s, the range has been 104-27 to 104-31, and we're currently down 6 ticks vs yesterday at 104-28. 10yr Yields are up to 1.72 now and S&P futures are up about 15 pts since yesterday's 4pm mark.
We've seen one positive reprice on the relative stability in MBS, but that's more to do with the M.O. of one particular lender as opposed to a sign of things to come. If anything, it looks like the primary task of MBS will be to fight off a burgeoning, late-day selling trend in Treasuries. If Fannie 3.0s cross that 104-27 mark, negative reprice risks begin increasing.
In terms of Fannie 3.0s, the range has been 104-27 to 104-31, and we're currently down 6 ticks vs yesterday at 104-28. 10yr Yields are up to 1.72 now and S&P futures are up about 15 pts since yesterday's 4pm mark.
We've seen one positive reprice on the relative stability in MBS, but that's more to do with the M.O. of one particular lender as opposed to a sign of things to come. If anything, it looks like the primary task of MBS will be to fight off a burgeoning, late-day selling trend in Treasuries. If Fannie 3.0s cross that 104-27 mark, negative reprice risks begin increasing.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Frank Ceizyk : "Justin-Stearns has a cash out delayed financing product to 75%. Appraised value. Just finished 4 of them a few weeks ago. "
Ethan Brizzi : "FNMA Direct product, Justin"
Steve Chizmadia : "I can get 70% of lesser of price paid or appraised values as long as application is dated 1 day after they took ownership with several investors"
Steve Chizmadia : "Lender to lender"
Justin Toenjes : "If a buyer pays cash for a house at auction how quickly can they do a cash-out refi to recoup the money? Is it 6 months or is lender to lender?"
Dennis Lykins : "OO .... why can't his downpayment simply be larger than the minimum AND get the seller paid costs? slightly reduced mi. "
Rob Clark : "REPRICE: 1:41 PM - Provident Funding Better"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "I have a borrower who is buying a short sale property and the short sale lender is requesting that there is a cash contribution of $7500. The seller cannot pay for it so my borrower is. The borrower also negotiated 3% seller concessions. PRMG is telling me that he cannot pay the $7500 and get seller concessions. Is this true?"
Matthew Graham : "existing loans expected to be getting paid off more quickly, primarily due to refinances (though other things can cause prepayments, like sales, foreclosures, winning lottery, etc...)"
Justin Dudek : "what exactly does "prepayment speeds are expected to pick up by November"?"
Ted Rood : "Biggest hurdle can be the previous Lo's performance and processing competance of the lender, Tom. If they burned bridges with the RE firm, can be tough to win back that trust. If you've got solid existing relationships with other agents, would think they'd want to continue using you rather than punt you to the curb...."
Tom Bartlett : "anyone have experience as to pro's and cons of being an inhouse lender for a RE firm? I have opp but not sure if it will tend to kill other agents from using me?"
Ken Crute : "mobilembs.com"
Justin Dudek : "first time iphone user, what is the link for mbs live?"
Jeff Anderson : "REPRICE: 12:07 PM - Chase Better"
Scott Valins : "across all agency products"
Adam Quinones : "we're talking about High Balance?"
Ira Selwin : "Also, though they told you their fee was .625. How do you know it was .625"
Adam Quinones : "1) Didn't think every lender was telling you their adjustment 2) Different lenders have different gfee agreements with the GSEs 3) some might not deliver MBS, they could go to the cash-window"
Scott Valins : "then why isn't each lender's adjustment .625?"
Adam Quinones : "nope. not at all. "padding" is the wrong word too. this is an actual fee the lender has to pay. "
Scott Valins : "AQ is .625 excessive? Doesn't seem like other lenders padded rates that much for G-fee."
Matthew Graham : "
Scott Valins
(10/11/12 3:06PM): Provident's 0.625pt G-FEE is showing up today on 30 day locks since expiration would be after 11/9 "
Adam Quinones : "how are you quantifying the gfee in pricing? did Provident tell you how much it would impact pricing?"
Scott Valins : "pf is 75 bps worse than last Monday. seem right?"
Scott Valins : "up to 100bps"
Ira Selwin : "Everyone is saying price has gotten much worse. But how much worse are you seeing?"
Adam Dahill : "way off compared to GMAC which has been the new contender with us. 53rd is comparable as they have always been ahead of the game. We just can't CEMA with them on correspondent only broker"
Adam Dahill : "Wells has gotten much worse over the past 2 weeks"
Ira Selwin : "when you say significant, how much do you mean"
Ray J : "yes, i noticed that yesterday Scott."
Scott Valins : "anyone notice a sig pull back on pricing on HB across all rate sheets?"
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