The Day Ahead: Another Chance to Fight Off the Growing Case for Apathy
The title of yesterday's "week ahead" asked whether or not markets to decide between confirming apathy and discovering organic motivation. Granted we're only one day in to the week, but thus far, we have one vote clearly in favor of confirming apathy. There was plenty of data and headlines, but none of it eliciting a clearly defined (and clearly attributable) reaction in markets. In other words, "stuff" was happening and markets were moving, but no good case can be made for connecting one to the other.
In addition, the day's movement wasn't especially inspiring or directional in the first place. MBS and Treasuries both traded sideways to slightly weaker and did so in lower-than-average volumes. Either markets had a case of the Mondays or we're waiting for Thursday's EU Summit.
Although today's session offers the Consumer Price Index at 8:30am along with Treasury International Capital at 9:00am, the best shot we have to see the aforementioned "organic motivation" arrives at 9:15am with the Industrial Production Report. NAHB's Housing Market Index rounds out the morning of data at 10am, but if things aren't already responding to the earlier data, NAHB's HMI can do little to change that.
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Week Of Mon, Oct 15 2012 - Fri, Oct 19 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
|
Mon, Oct 15 |
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|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Oct |
-- |
-5.00 |
-10.41 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Sep |
% |
0.7 |
0.9 |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Aug |
% |
0.5 |
0.8 |
|
Tue, Oct 16 |
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|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Sep |
% |
0.4 |
0.6 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Sep |
% |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
09:00 |
TIC Net L-T flows,exswaps |
Aug |
bl |
-- |
67.0 |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Sep |
% |
78.3 |
78.2 |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Sep |
% |
0.2 |
-1.2 |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Oct |
-- |
41 |
40 |
|
Wed, Oct 17 |
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|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
198.9 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
5772.6 |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Sep |
ml |
0.768 |
0.750 |
|
08:30 |
House starts mm: change |
Sep |
% |
-- |
2.3 |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Sep |
ml |
0.810 |
0.801 |
|
08:30 |
Build permits: change mm |
Sep |
% |
-- |
-1.2 |
|
Thu, Oct 18 |
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|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
362 |
339 |
|
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
Sep |
% |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Index |
-- |
-- |
1.0 |
-1.9 |
|
Fri, Oct 19 |
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|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Sep |
ml |
4.75 |
4.82 |
|
10:00 |
Exist. home sales % chg |
Sep |
% |
-2.0 |
+7.8 |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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