The Day Ahead: As Auction Cycle Ends, Fed Speakers And Econ Data Just Warming Up

It's been a bit of an odd week for markets, structurally speaking.  Columbus Day had bond markets closed while stocks remained open; MBS had Fannie and Freddie 30yr Settlement the first day back; Econ data has been nonexistent thus far; Earnings season kicked off; the more interesting of the two flavors of Treasury Auction Cycles held the Tuesday through Thursday course; and a zillion Fed speakers will hit the tape by Friday.

We've likely omitted a few interesting tidbits here, but you get the idea...  There's a lot going on here for a market that is trading like not a lot has been going on.  Some of the categories of information were absent early in the week and will ramp up greatly by the end, and vice versa for others.  It's as if multiple footprints converged in the snow and now we're not sure which one to follow. 

Thursday is a major gear shift, and stands a good chance to leave less doubt as to which tracks are most worthy to be followed.  By the end of it, we'll have the week's auction cycle completed, the lion's share of the economic data reported (all today!), and and even bigger lion's share of Fed Speakers. 

Too, there's the matter of price and yield levels themselves having an opportunity to commit to a trend and do so in less pitiful volume.  We're looking forward to what we hope will be a good "old fashioned" sort of trading day, in which several potential guidance givers actually MATTER as opposed to nothing mattering except the next EU headline or a Jobs report that is weeks away.

The data sets kick off with an 8:30am trifecta consisting of the monthly Trade deficit, Jobless Claims, and Import/Export Prices.  Fed voter Yellen speaks overnight in Tokyo and newer Fed voter Stein speaks right after the morning econ data.  Fed speak continues into mid-morning and afternoon with Raskin and Plosser, followed by the 30yr Bond Auction at 1pm.  Bullard provides the final Fed-speak of the day but too late to move Thursday's markets.