The Day Ahead: Data Calendar Ramps Up; 10yr Treasury Auction, Fed Speakers

By: Matthew Graham

Tuesday was a challenging for MBS on several fronts.  In addition to being a relatively light volume "first day back after a 3-day weekend," MBS also had the settlement process to deal with.  It was all a bit much and prices reflected that, essentially moving sideways near Friday's lows by the end of the session as if to protest.

Treasuries did their own bit of protesting.  After spending the morning looking for guidance (and finding it in stock markets), the Treasury complex suddenly remembered that there's a 10yr Auction to accommodate today, and began backing up in yield without regard for stocks, which were generally sideways after the morning's initial bout of selling.

In addition to the 10yr Note Auction at 1pm, Wednesday also brings a smattering of mid-tier data including Wholesale Inventories and the Fed's Beige Book.  Potential central bank headline potential is well represented with a Fed/ECB conference on bank funding earlier in the day and is anchored by 3 additional Fed Speakers late in the session.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Oct 9 2012 - Fri, Oct 12 2012

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Tue, Oct 9

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

32.0

--

Wed, Oct 10

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

--

194.2

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

5888.0

10:00

Wholesale inventories mm

Aug

%

0.4

0.7

13:00

10yr Treasury Auction


Bl

21.0


14:00

Fed's Beige Book

--

--

--

--

Thu, Oct 11

08:30

International trade mm $

Aug

bl

-44.0

-42.0

08:30

Export prices mm

Sep

%

0.4

0.9

08:30

Import prices mm

Sep

%

0.7

0.7

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

370

367

13:00

30-Yr Bond Auction

--

bl

13.0

--

Fri, Oct 12

08:30

Producer prices mm

Sep

%

0.8

1.7

08:30

Producer prices, core mm

Sep

%

0.2

0.2

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Oct

78.0

--

78.3

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"