The Day Ahead: Two Flavors Of Home Price Data, Plus Consumer Sentiment

Monday's session was odd, but enjoyable for MBS devotees.  We'd be hard pressed to cite one significant driver of trade other than the simple fact that it was Monday and that's what markets do on Mondays.  Beyond that, there was little fanfare as both MBS and Treasuries clocked their lowest recent volumes.  Fannie 3.0s hit new all-time highs, and held a surprisingly narrow range in the process, at least against the backdrop of Friday's sharper movements.

Even ahead of time, Monday's limited calendar of events looked like a mere warm-up for the rest of the week, so we can forgive the uninspired drift and overlook the eery nature of such a drift resulting in new all-time highs.  We can also look forward to Today, which certainly offers a bit more to digest in terms of data, even if it isn't on par with the last 3 days of the week.

Much as was the case yesterday, today's overnight session offers a few opportunities to kick momentum off in one direction or another with a moderate amount of scheduled data in Europe as well as headline potential centered on a meeting between ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The domestic data calendar kicks off with Case Shiller HPI, the first of two reports on home prices.  The second iteration hits at 10am in the form of the typically rosier FHFA House Price Index along with Consumer Confidence, probably the most significant of the three in terms of market moving potential.  As is usually the case in this, the age of "Twist," the Fed is conducting scheduled buying from 10:15-11:00am, this time in the 8-10yr maturity range.