The Day Ahead: Economic Data Focuses On Housing, But Will Markets Focus On Data?

To hear the story told by NAHB's index yesterday, the housing market is in the best shape since June 2006--the major caveat being that sales EXPECTATIONS over the next six months accounted for a lion's share of the improvement.  Today we'll have a chance to hear from 3 other reports on housing, as well as the weekly MBA Applications figures.  Taken together (or even individually, with the exception of the MBA data), these reports certainly pack more market moving punch than yesterday's data, but whether or not they conjure up any market-based response is another story.

Certainly, it's possible that today's Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales data will move the needle more than we've seen it moved by economic data thus far this week.  But any such movement will be muted by the fact that the Fed continues to make its focus on employment painfully clear.  Furthermore, it seems like it's only a matter of time and debate before the Fed's policies are contingent upon actual figures from economic reports.  

Combine that focus on employment data with the fact that the cycle of monthly housing reports isn't generally a big-ticket item in the first place, and we have the ingredients for another confused, low-volume, apathetic, sideways trading day.  

The European calendar is not much help, with no major standouts in terms of data or events, but always with unscheduled headline potential.  It's the same for US data really.  The events in the day ahead are "guilty" of adding to the sideways apathy until they stand up and declare themselves "innocent."  Housing data could do that with a violent miss or beat vs expectations, we suppose, and European headlines could do the same, if they're sensational enough.

The other theme of the week--Fed Speakers--continues unabated, though perhaps ebbs somewhat as only KC Fed's George speaks during market hours.  Dallas Fed Pres Fisher will be out at 7pm, and thus more of a consideration for Thursday's trading day, if a consideration at all.