MBS RECAP: Some Late Day Redemption As MBS, Treasuries Get Back To Green
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Stocks sold off roughly 10 points from their highs of the day and the "risk-off" environment benefited Treausuries and MBS. Either that or 10yr yields were simply paying attention to the 1.69 technical ceiling, albeit in relatively low volume. Whatever the case, Fannie 3.0's and 3.5's moved back into positive territory late in the day, as did 10yr yields falling back near their lows of the day at 1.6627. These gains go a long way toward mitigating earlier reprice risk, though aren't likely to create much positive reprice potential.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
1:27PM :
ALERT ISSUED:
MBS Near Lows OF The Day. Slightly Increased Negative Reprice Risk
Not much more to this alert than the title suggests. Fannie 3.0s are down to 103-21 after bumping our heads on highs of 103-26 to 103-27 around rate sheet time. The reason there's not much more to it than this is the fact that the losses are completely incidental, not drawing on any headline or fundamental cause and effect.
10yr yields and S&Ps continue to cut narrow triangular ranges with 10's off their 1.66 lows to 1.683 at the moment. They'd opened earlier at 1.69.
We'd probably note that MBS were a few ticks lower moments ago--103-19 to be exact--and at those levels, we'd be slightly more concerned than the 103-21. Whatever the case, risks are increased, and continue to increase if we tick down from here as opposed to hold ground supportively around 103-20.
10yr yields and S&Ps continue to cut narrow triangular ranges with 10's off their 1.66 lows to 1.683 at the moment. They'd opened earlier at 1.69.
We'd probably note that MBS were a few ticks lower moments ago--103-19 to be exact--and at those levels, we'd be slightly more concerned than the 103-21. Whatever the case, risks are increased, and continue to increase if we tick down from here as opposed to hold ground supportively around 103-20.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Clayton Sandy : "Page 399 https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/sg/pdf/sel082112.pdf"
Clayton Sandy : "Looking for it. "
Scott Rieke : "Clayton, do you have any details on that. Trying to track this stuff down after the fact is hard"
Jim Leonard : "I am being told the Providnet Funding has super conforming pricing on 30 year fixed at 3.5% with 2.25 back. Can anyone confirm that for me. My best lender is not even close to that number,"
Clayton Sandy : "It's relatively new, but you'll still have investors that have their overlay. "
Scott Rieke : "What's that about the Fannie gift change?"
MC : "REPRICE: 1:38 PM - Flagstar Worse"
Matt Hodges : "answer: QuickScore only updates balance.. her minimum payment went up as of the time I ordered the QS, which can be corrected with a regular CR update"
Jeff Anderson : "Man, the EU has more leaks than the Titanic. Every meeting should just be on cable over there."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- GERMANY'S MERKEL, SCHAEUBLE TELL CONSERVATIVE LAWMAKERS IN CLOSED-DOOR MEETING THAT ECB IS ACTING WITHIN ITS MANDATE ON BOND BUYING PLAN- PARTICIPANTS "
Jeff Statz : "What AC said. I'd have her conf you on when she gets the creditor on the line too."
Matt Hodges : "no, she paid down $5000 or so, minimum went from$172 to $213"
Jeff Statz : "could the trade line update as to their actual payment made instead of what's due?"
Matt Hodges : "on QuickScore through Kroll, i just got 17 points, which makes the deal doable, but the minimum payment on the updated balance went from 2% to 7% (actually higher minimum with much smaller balance). thoughts on why?"
Jeff Anderson : "The refi's would be the same people that have been in the door a few times already since 2009. Is the Fed thinking that purchases would pick up, that due to rents increasing it would be that much cheaper for people to own vs rent again and that would be the pop they're looking for?"
Matthew Graham : "actually, I think plenty of people would refinance if rates moved lower, but it would just be recycling the same crowd that refinanced the last two times rates crossed into a new handle."
Michael Gannon : "wont help purchases either is what i meant to say. "
Michael Gannon : "I would have to agree with them....at least directly it wouldnt. Lower rates would not help refinances much more and unless the economy strengthens based on jobs it wont help them either"
Steven Stone : "they could only sell to freddie actually...fannie cut them off years before the implosion"
Chip Harris : "I know, JA. I used to do a lot with Taylor Bean and most of their stuff did not end up with Fannie or Freddie it seems. I feel so bad for those people. My loan is one of them."
Matt Hodges : "didn't BB&T portfolio a ton of F/F eligible loans that could fit in that program?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - REUTERS POLL-21 OF 34 ECONOMISTS SAY FED PURCHASES OF MBS WOULD NOT GIVE SUBSTANTIAL BOOST TO U.S. HOUSING MARKET "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - REUTERS POLL-U.S. HOUSE PRICES AS MEASURED BY S&P/CASE-SHILLER INDEX SEEN +1.0 PCT IN 2012, +2.5 PCT IN 2013 (FLAT, +1.8 IN JULY POLL) "
Jeff Anderson : "There are a ton of those too, Chip."
Chip Harris : "Anyone think there will ever be a HARP program fro conventional clients not with Fannie or Freddie? Those underwater clients are really not gettign a fair shake."
Matt Hodges : "it's a good question, rford. if asbestos has been disturbed or is planning to be removed, you will need an EPA certified company in full body suits... expensive proposition"
rford : "I have a purchase client that has a home under contract that jsut has been notified that there is asbestos in the attic. A lender will not finance a home with this, will they? Even though it is a FNMA home, i dont even thtink a homepath renovation loan could get this deal done. Anyone ran into this before? "
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