MBS RECAP: Trading Ends Like It Began, Waiting For Something
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
No matter how many times and how vigorously we shake the magic 8-ball, it continues offering the most frustrating and least helpful side of it's crazy little triangular die: "ask again later." Thanks for nothing magic 8-ball... It's one thing to say "reply hazy, ask again." At least in that case we know to ask again right away! But "ask later?" This is too vague for us, and we're not sure if you mean to ask after the ECB Announcement or after NFP Friday. Maybe "later" refers to next week after the FOMC Announcement and German court ruling? Either way, markets put on a similarly noncommittal display today, trading inside the same tired range set up with the highs from Friday afternoon. Those same highs have capped MBS in the first two days of this week and with the ECB announcement ostensibly leaked, threaten to do the same tomorrow.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
3:50PM :
MBS Inch Back Into The Green, Outperforming Treasuries
Everything continues to be "small-scale volatile" within fairly well-defined ranges. After trending lower since 11am, MBS caught another supportive bounce at the low end of their two-day range at 103-21.
Treasuries are still slightly weaker on the day, up 1.3bps to 1.587, but Fannie 3.0s MBS are outperforming, up 1 tick on the day at 103-24. These prices go a long way toward mitigating the potential reprice risk that had been building earlier.
With the ECB news ostensibly out already for tomorrow morning, we're that much more intently focused on Friday's NFP and thus, that much more willing to accept this sideways, grindy, uninspired price action.
Treasuries are still slightly weaker on the day, up 1.3bps to 1.587, but Fannie 3.0s MBS are outperforming, up 1 tick on the day at 103-24. These prices go a long way toward mitigating the potential reprice risk that had been building earlier.
With the ECB news ostensibly out already for tomorrow morning, we're that much more intently focused on Friday's NFP and thus, that much more willing to accept this sideways, grindy, uninspired price action.
1:51PM :
ALERT ISSUED:
On The Verge Of Reprice Risk Despite Contained Prices Overall
Even though today's price action has been well contained by yesterday's ranges, the tone and trend have generally been weaker since the completion of the scheduled Fed buyback at 11am. We've mostly held ground at a supportive 103-22 pivot but have recently tested a break below.
With volume waning and high-risk events ahead tomorrow, not to mention increased lock volume on fears of G-Fee hits being priced in unexpectedly, the environment is a bit risky in terms of negative reprices. That said, we're not dealing with the sorts of moves that get a majority of lenders involved. That could change if we move convincingly below 103-20, but for now, Fannie 3.0s are at 103-21.
With volume waning and high-risk events ahead tomorrow, not to mention increased lock volume on fears of G-Fee hits being priced in unexpectedly, the environment is a bit risky in terms of negative reprices. That said, we're not dealing with the sorts of moves that get a majority of lenders involved. That could change if we move convincingly below 103-20, but for now, Fannie 3.0s are at 103-21.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Jeff Anderson : "Aug 2012 and Sept 2012 2nd and 3rd best months of career behind May 2012, so very busy. August was a huge month for the company from what I saw."
Dennis Lykins : "really busy. 9 days in underwriting, but i can live with that."
philip mancuso : "july 23rd-august 10th was our busiest period of the year. since hasn't been as good. frankly we've been pretty steady for the last 12 months and prior."
Christopher Stevens : "just finished tightening up the pipeline"
Michael Tadros : "REPRICE: 2:15 PM - Interbank Worse"
Benjamin Payne : "UW is rough right now with my lenders"
Andy Pada : "I'm seeing a little bit of a slowdown in applications in the month of August. But seeing a larger % of cashout refis."
Matt Hodges : "slammed - busiest year of my career"
Andy Pada : "how is everyone's current production? "
Lea Shaw : "all reserves can be used towards the 3.5% closing costs! Great reminder Jeff"
Jeff Statz : "JPM still around? i had an UW use "tax reserves" to count toward 3.5%. on a case by case basis, it can be done. HUD waffled over that facet from day one of the "no closing costs can be counted in min borrower contribution.""
Lea Shaw : "I gotta say after 37 years in this business there is no greater site than this one, I trust referring my clients to all the qualified originators on this site, thank you MBS!"
Matthew Graham : "take a look at advanced charts on a longer time frame. The past two sessions that look volatile today are more like a narrow, sideways ledge in the longer run."
Matthew Graham : "narrow range... distorts reality a bit. "
Benjamin Payne : "wow all over the place today"
Michael Francis : "For Fannie, 12bps for terms greater than 15 years, and 6 bps for terms 15 years and less....."
Curt Sandfort : "and the across the board was? "
Michael Francis : "Across the board Curt. Now, that does not mean they won't change LLPA's, but that would be an unrelated change."
Curt Sandfort : "speaking of g-fees, is there a new LLPA matrix, or is it just across the board. I missed that announcement"
Brian Atha : "Closing costs cannot be used to meet the minimum 3.5% down payment requirement: http://www.hud.gov/offices/adm/hudclips/letters/mortgagee/files/08-23ml.pdf"
Adam Shelton : "John...no it cannot. FHA no longer allows prepaid items to be included in the down payment. I learned this the hard way last week."
John Paul Mulchay : "This has been discussed buy I need a refresher. FHA statutory contribution is 3.5%, If client pays $500 for appraisal, this can be considered a part of the 3.5%, correct?"
Matthew Graham : "speculation seems to favor G-fee, and would make some additional sense given ST's longer lock time frames. Several folks mentioned possible pipeline control as well. I haven't heard or seen definitively though"
Jim Begley : "Missed any discussion, any consensus on the reasoning behind STs move yesterday? Pipeline control? Blame it on November g-fee hike?"
Michael Francis : "New g-fee pricing is effective with cash window sales in November, and MBS deliveries in December. So, that means if you are pricing to an expiration in November on a conventional loan, that lock date will be and should be about 60-80 worse. The shorter locks will get adjusted similarly as they begin to expire in the November/December time frame."
Christopher Stevens : "my pricing is anywhere from an d1/8th better to an 1/8 worse depending on lender. not much change at all. I can tell you BB&T and Suntrust have phenomenal FHA pricing."
Adam Dahill : "I got to pull up the sheets to compare exact figures. Co-worker was sayign G-Fees kicked in? I've been in closing mode so haven't been closely tracking"
Adam Dahill : "ouch just looked at Chase's pricing. They whacked us for 80 cents"
Matthew Graham : "any more Suntrust-like moves ?"
Brayden Alexander : "I think rates opened down about an 1/8th from what I have read"
edward nam : "well i was hoping for a flat opening but i am down about an 1/8 in points compared to yesterday "
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