The Day Ahead: Auction Cycle and Economic Data Make Week's First Appearances
While Monday technically contained a modicum of economic data in the form of the Chicago Fed's manufacturing index, the first potentially market-moving data prints this morning with Consumer Confidence at 10am. Even then, as we've said about the entire week's line-up, we think it will take some doing to get markets to react meaningfully to any economic data that falls within a certain range of the consensus estimates.
Reason being: the whole lot of it, even if added together and multiplied by some impressive number, would still be outdone by the events that follow in the coming weeks. We'd make something of an exception for Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on Friday as it can act as sort of an appetizer for a particularly important FOMC Announcement next month, as well as a translation piece to bridge the gap between the future announcement and last week's Minutes from the previous announcement.
So Bernanke on Friday is already where markets clearly seem to be focused--at least those market participants that are still here and not taking advantage of the last of the most eligible vacations weeks before the 3 day labor day weekend coming up. But simply being conceptually focused on future events cannot render current events meaningless! In fact, one of the symptoms of low volume trading is that it's more easily dominated by one side of the trade. This can create a fair amount of volatility in the rest of the week.
Such volatility was absent in Monday's session, and Tuesday is the other day of the week that lacks any major punch from econ data. We'll get Case Shiller home prices at 9:00am, which is always an interesting data set for mortgage market participants, but not the biggest market-mover. The essentially unimportant Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index hits at 10am with Consumer Confidence. The last reading was 65.9 and today's estimate calls for a shockingly different 66.0. The first of the week's Treasury Note auctions hits at 1pm, but given that it's the 2yr, you can safely expect it not to matter as far as MBS and Mortgage Rates are concerned.
Just biding our time until bigger-ticket items start reporting and on the lookout for any surprises between now and then...
|
Week Of Mon, Aug 27 2012 - Fri, Aug 31 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Aug 27 |
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|
08:30 |
Midwest manufacturing |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
94.1 |
-- |
|
Tue, Aug 28 |
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|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
Jun |
% |
1.4 |
2.2 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm SA |
Jun |
% |
0.6 |
0.9 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 yy |
Jun |
% |
-0.2 |
-0.7 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
Aug |
-- |
66.0 |
65.9 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Rich Fed comp. index |
Aug |
-- |
-- |
-17 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
2-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
35.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Wed, Aug 29 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
177.4 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4609.9 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
GDP Final |
Q2 |
% |
1.7 |
1.5 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Pending homes index |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
99.3 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Pending sales change mm |
Jul |
% |
1.1 |
-1.4 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
5-Yr Treasury Auction |
-- |
bl |
35.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Aug 30 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Core PCE price index mm |
Jul |
% |
0.1 |
0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
370 |
372 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.303 |
3.317 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumption, adjusted mm |
Jul |
% |
0.4 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Personal income mm |
Jul |
% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
-- |
|
11:00 |
KC Fed manufacturing |
Aug |
-- |
-- |
2 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
7-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
29.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Aug 31 |
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|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Aug |
-- |
73.6 |
73.6 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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