MBS MID-DAY: Several Hours Later And Still Green
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
At the risk of jinxing today's positive momentum, we still felt compelled to let you know that MBS and Treasuries set a record for the week just now by making it into the 5th hour of the trading day without beginning to sell-off, something they haven't been able to do on any of the previous days this week. We can only keep our fingers crossed into the afternoon.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
10:23AM :
ECON: Consumer Sentiment Hits Three-Month High in August
U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early August to its highest level in three months as sales at retailers and low mortgage rates spurred Americans to buy more.
A separate gauge of future U.S. economic activity also improved in July.
The preliminary reading on the index on consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since May at 73.6 from 72.3 last month, topping economists' forecasts for a slight uptick to 72.4.
"Although the growth rate in personal consumption expenditures can be expected to rebound from the second quarter lull, growth can be expected to remain just under two percent to the end of the first quarter of 2013," survey director Richard Curtain said in a statement.
Buying plans were bolstered by cheap prices and the measure of buying conditions for household durable rose to 140 from 130.
The survey's barometer of current economic conditions climbed to 87.6 from 82.7, but the survey's gauge of consumer expectations slipped to 64.5 from 65.6. Expectations were at their lowest level since December.
A separate gauge of future U.S. economic activity also improved in July.
The preliminary reading on the index on consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since May at 73.6 from 72.3 last month, topping economists' forecasts for a slight uptick to 72.4.
"Although the growth rate in personal consumption expenditures can be expected to rebound from the second quarter lull, growth can be expected to remain just under two percent to the end of the first quarter of 2013," survey director Richard Curtain said in a statement.
Buying plans were bolstered by cheap prices and the measure of buying conditions for household durable rose to 140 from 130.
The survey's barometer of current economic conditions climbed to 87.6 from 82.7, but the survey's gauge of consumer expectations slipped to 64.5 from 65.6. Expectations were at their lowest level since December.
9:44AM :
ALERT ISSUED:
Bond Markets Marginally Improved, But Weaker After The Open
10yr yields began the Asian session by pulling back a bit from yesterday's late day highs. 1.805 was the overnight low ahead of the European session. Things reversed course, albeit in a fairly contained range, just after midnight, moving up to 1.84, and finally falling back down into the high 1.80's just before the domestic open.
Bond markets have been very slightly weaker since then, but remain in positive territory with MBS up 5 ticks vs yesterday, but down 2 ticks on the morning to 102-03. 10yr yields are up to 1.8157 and the once-again-relevant Fannie 3.5's (sadly) are up 3 ticks on the day at 104-20.
There were limited news and data offerings overnight, but it's interesting to note that Fed's Kocherlakota was out saying he wasn't in favor of "late 2014" verbiage and would have preferred an earlier date. Meanwhile, a survey from Reuters this morning shows an INCREASED expectation for QE3 from last month's survey (from 50 pct of primary dealers expecting QE3 in July to 60 pct in August).
We haven't had any economic data at home yet this morning, but the sole release, August Consumer Sentiment will hit in roughly 10 minutes at 9:55am.
Bond markets have been very slightly weaker since then, but remain in positive territory with MBS up 5 ticks vs yesterday, but down 2 ticks on the morning to 102-03. 10yr yields are up to 1.8157 and the once-again-relevant Fannie 3.5's (sadly) are up 3 ticks on the day at 104-20.
There were limited news and data offerings overnight, but it's interesting to note that Fed's Kocherlakota was out saying he wasn't in favor of "late 2014" verbiage and would have preferred an earlier date. Meanwhile, a survey from Reuters this morning shows an INCREASED expectation for QE3 from last month's survey (from 50 pct of primary dealers expecting QE3 in July to 60 pct in August).
We haven't had any economic data at home yet this morning, but the sole release, August Consumer Sentiment will hit in roughly 10 minutes at 9:55am.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Matthew Graham : "usually seen to be a "continuation pattern" (i.e. prices consolidating before moving higher."
Matthew Graham : "re: "flagging," FLAGS and PENNANTS are incidental consolidations in a moving market or one that's about to reverse. They get their name because they look like a flag or a pennant on a flagpole. "
Matthew Graham : "stocks flagging at yesterday's highs. Triangle in S&P futures. "
Matthew Graham : "THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH SURVEY SAYS CONSUMERS EXPECT HIGHER INFLATION DUE TO RISING FOOD PRICES "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE DEC 2011 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE JAN 2008 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE MAY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRSCURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX PRELIMINARY AUGUST 87.6 (CONSENSUS 83.0) VS FINAL JULY 82.7 "
Matthew Graham : " - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH US CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY AUGUST 73.6 (CONSENSUS 72.4) VS FINAL JULY 72.3 "
Brayden Alexander : "Nice trend line from yesterday's lows. "
Matthew Graham : "9/12 - 9/13"
Matthew Graham : "http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
Justin Dudek : "mg what is the date of the Fed meeting? "
Brent Borcherding : "Stocks keep going up and up and up"
Matthew Graham : "interesting timing re: "buying hype""
Matthew Graham : ""The majority of economists polled thought the Fed's next policy meeting in September was the most likely time for any announcement on QE3.""
Victor Burek : "does it give a time frame..like at sept meeting?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - REUTERS POLL-U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS SEEN AVERAGING 135,000 PER MONTH IN Q3 (123,000 JULY POLL), 150,000 IN Q4 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- REUTERS POLL-CHANCES U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CONDUCTS QE3 RISE TO 60 PCT FROM 50 PCT IN JULY POLL "
Jay Rafuse : "Good Morning...here's hoping for a solid green day!"
B-C : "Friday afternoons have not been friendly to us"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "starting off with some green. Let's hope yesterday does not repeat itseld"
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