The Week Ahead: Treasury Auctions, FOMC Minutes, And Class A MBS Settlement

The week begins with Europe in focus as ECB President Mario Draghi testifies before the European Parliament to explain current policy in the wake of last week's ECB rate cut.  Then, Euro zone finance ministers (Eurogroup) will meet again to continue the discussion on Greece, Spain, Cyprus, and drill down on the finer points of agreements reached last week.  

(Reuters) Euro zone finance chiefs will try to flesh out plans to reinforce the single currency on Monday but their talks in Brussels may do little more than highlight the limitations of last month's deal to help indebted states and banks. Decisions on banking supervision, how to use euro zone bailout money, aid to Spain and Cyprus and whether to grant concessions to Greece are likely to take months to finalize...  (read MORE)

Apart from Fed-speak from Williams at 11:55am and Consumer Credit at 3pm, the rest of the day is utterly lacking in terms of potential market movers.  Tuesday is perhaps slower still as there is no significant economic data and a mere 3yr Note Auction which has not been a market mover in the current environment.  At the end of the session, Class A MBS (Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed) roll from July Coupons to August.  That means that the charts/tables will take a hit in terms of prices, but it doesn't connote any real weakness in MBS.

Things pick up noticeably on Wednesday.  Data gets more meaningful (to whatever extent most of the traditionally watched pieces of economic data can still be meaningful) with International Trade and Wholesale Inventories in the morning followed by the 10yr Treasury Auction and the FOMC Minutes from the June 20th meeting in the afternoon.  The Fed's stance is something less than mysterious at the moment, so markets aren't on the edge of their seats waiting to be enlightened by this one.  Still, Fed Minutes always have the potential to be market-moving events.  That happens at 2pm and along with the 10yr Auction at 1pm is the most important part of the day in terms of market movers.

The last of the longer duration Treasury Auctions arrives on Thursday in the form of the 30yr Bond--somewhat less significant than the 10yr (all things being equal), but much more meaningful than the 3yr earlier in the week.  The morning will also see the standard-issue Jobless Claims as well as Import/Export Prices.  Barring a surprise in the morning data, the auction is once again the focal point of the day.

Things slow down somewhat on Friday with only two economic reports in the morning.  Producer Prices are first up at 8:30am, and we can't really say too little about them.  Inflation is one of those things that doesn't really seem to be on the market's collective radar for some time now, so we remain fairly aloof on the "PI's" until someone or something gives us a compelling reason to care.  The more interesting report of the day hits at 9:55am with Consumer Sentiment.  Last month was the lowest reading in the last 6 months.