MBS RECAP: Benefiting From Weak ISM, Tapering Off Late

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Although MBS and Treasuries began the day in slightly better territory, the bulk of the gains were seen after the weaker-than-expected ISM report showed the first instance of contracting activity in the manufacturing sector since July 2009.  This was a surprisingly clearly delineated statement on the relative importance of domestic economic data versus European considerations--a good reminder to get on a week that will end with Non-Farm Payrolls. 
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
105-13 : +0-09
FNMA 4.0
106-21 : +0-06
FNMA 4.5
107-14 : +0-04
FNMA 5.0
108-10 : +0-02
GNMA 3.5
107-11 : +0-11
GNMA 4.0
109-14 : +0-06
GNMA 4.5
109-17 : +0-06
GNMA 5.0
110-06 : +0-04
FHLMC 3.5
105-07 : +0-09
FHLMC 4.0
106-11 : +0-06
FHLMC 4.5
106-31 : +0-04
FHLMC 5.0
107-19 : +0-03
Pricing as of 4:04 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.

3:54PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Falling Into Slightly Weaker Territory After The Treasury Close
Reprice risk at present is mostly a factor of a particular lender's previous reprices today and they're general propensity to react to rather small changes in MBS Prices. We could imagine if a lender has repriced positively today or is otherwise near the top of the market and also is generally predisposed to be one of the first few to reprice, then the risks of negative reprices are moderately increased this afternoon as MBS fall to their lowest levels since 10am.

It's an interesting situation because we also wouldn't be too surprised to see a slower-to-respond lender--one who may have been waiting for MBS to display a bit of staying power--to be coming in with a late reprice for the better. Bottom line, MBS are still 3-5 ticks higher than they were before this morning's ISM data, but are noticeably off their highs since then.
3:02PM  :  MBS Continue Holding Gains In Quiet Afternoon
There's nothing to report here really, unless you'd consider the lack of interesting goings-on to be paradoxically interesting. Things are very quiet despite volume having reached fairly decent levels for an average trading day, let alone the only full trading day before the holiday on the 4th.

Fannie 3.0s have held a narrow range just over 103-00 since just after the Fed "Twist" buying wrapped up at 11am. Markets got their biggest boost from the disappointing ISM data at 10am but got another smaller boost after the 11:00am Twist buying results painted a general picture with "less supply than demand." Treasuries ratcheted another few bps higher on that news.

The ongoing flatness looks like it might be fading just a bit here in the afternoon as Treasuries cross the 3pm closing mark, but ultimately, we'd need to see Fannie 3.0s break below 102-30 before we'd care too much. So far, we're just seeing a little leakage from the highs of a narrow range to the lows, and at this point still more likely to see positive reprices vs negative (not really likely at all to see negative reprices unless it's motivate by something other than MBS Prices, such as "pipeline control").
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Victor Burek  :  "REPRICE: 2:58 PM - Nexbank Better"
Ira Selwin  :  "Freddie here: http://www.freddiemac.com/sell/factsheets/ltv_tltv.htm"
Ira Selwin  :  "https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/eligibility/pdf/eligibilitymatrix.pdf"
Curt Sandfort  :  "2 unit n/o/o cashout, capped a 70% by FNM & FRE or investor overlays? Can't find anyone to go 75% Client says USB retail will do it, but I'm telling him they don't have it quoted correctly."
MC  :  "Cause she would have gone into great detail about the top of the line appliances and all the high end finishes the would have pushed this up 25k? lol ,sure!"
Brent Borcherding  :  "Just got an appraisal back on a purchase, $425K, we had $450K purchase price. Buyer's agent was mad at me because the appraiser didn't call her; "There is no way this would have come in low had I been there with him.""
Justin Heiden  :  "REPRICE: 1:59 PM - Wells Fargo Better"
Matt Hodges  :  "@jason - yes, heat must be checked - without utlities, you can't verify safety"
Jason Sheaffer  :  "i'm checking to make sure i'm not crazy...conventional loan, do utitlies need to be on?"
Dean Gorenflo  :  "renegotiate early for a longer time period"
Robin Baran  :  "Dilemma, divorce decree shows two years left of maintenance, then renegotiable. Du is asking for proof of 3 years continuance. Do I have any options ? Can save borrower $1200 a month. "
Lynn ONeal  :  "REPRICE: 1:02 PM - Fifth Third Mortgage Better"
Matthew Graham  :  "haven't seen yet, but it's been running about 30%-ish, mostly to all Fed"
Raul Lopez  :  "So how 3.0 volume today?"
Matthew Graham  :  "almost to 800k futures contracts. Considering probable light liquidity ahead of holiday, seems pretty decent."
Matthew Graham  :  "big spike on ISM, was about average before that, and has died back down since Noon."
Gus Floropoulos  :  "MG, how is volume this AM"
Rob Clark  :  "REPRICE: 12:49 PM - Provident Funding Better"
Ira Selwin  :  "That Franklin reprice is actually the 2nd of the day"
Lynn ONeal  :  "REPRICE: 12:05 PM - USBank Better"
Brent Borcherding  :  "REPRICE: 12:04 PM - Interbank Better"
Lynn ONeal  :  "REPRICE: 12:04 PM - Franklin American Better"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "REPRICE: 12:03 PM - PHH Better"

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