MBS RECAP: Holding Ground Impressively Despite Down Day

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
After the June 20th FOMC Announcement failed to coax bond markets out of their horizontal range, much began to be made of this week's EU Summit.  Then markets grew dismissive of it's potential early this week after two of the key Greek participants sent rain-checks.  Reality turned out to be somewhere between the hype and cynicism as the Summit at least produced something market-moving, but the movement was ultimately contained by the same old sideways range that has contained almost every last bit of MBS-relevant bond market trading since 6/5.  In terms of of Fannie 3.5's that range has been 104-20 to 105-08 with only a few brief departures outside.  Fannie 3.0's experienced it at 102-00 to 102-24 and 10yr yields from 1.55 to 1.69, give or take a bp.  The super clearly-defined triangle that, at one time, seemed intent on generating a marked break higher or lower, COMICALLY broke both higher AND lower on the last two days of the week only to hit the horizontal range boundaries on both sides and decide to stay inside those boundaries.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
105-04 : -0-07
FNMA 4.0
106-14 : -0-04
FNMA 4.5
107-09 : -0-03
FNMA 5.0
108-08 : -0-02
GNMA 3.5
106-32 : -0-05
GNMA 4.0
109-08 : -0-04
GNMA 4.5
109-12 : -0-04
GNMA 5.0
110-02 : -0-01
FHLMC 3.5
104-29 : -0-06
FHLMC 4.0
106-04 : -0-05
FHLMC 4.5
106-26 : -0-03
FHLMC 5.0
107-16 : -0-01
Pricing as of 4:07 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.

1:48PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Drifting Into Riskier Territory Now. Potential Negative Reprices
Liquidity (and earlier gains) have been leaking out of bond markets since the noon hour. Fannie 3.0s are back down to 102-16 after hitting 102-22 earlier. Fannie 3.5's are down to 105-01.

We're not seeing any cause for alarm with respect to a major sell-off given the current information at the market's disposal, but simply being backed up to these levels does introduce a modicum of negative reprice risk. Reprices wouldn't be widespread by any means at current levels, but if bond markets make some sort of unified movement past support levels (1.675 in 10yr yields, 105-00 in Fannie 3.5s and 102-14 in Fannie 3.0s).
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Matthew Graham  :  "smart enough to be paralyzed by indecision"
Victor Burek  :  "bond traders are smarter"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "nope, that is why bonds haven't moved all that much..."
Rob Clark  :  "Sheep mentality. If enough people believe things are better they will get better."
Brent Borcherding  :  "Just because they are buying stocks today, does NOT mean they buy that the issue is fixed....they'll just sell next week."
Andrew Horowitz  :  "Saw a headline on CNBC earlier "now that Europe is fixed, is China next"....Fixed????"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHAEUBLE SAYSNO EURO BONDS IN HIS LIFETIME EITHER WITHOUT COMMON FINANCIAL POLICY "
Steven Stone  :  "use the orig val"
Jason York  :  "on an FHA SL w/0 appraisal, so you always have to use the 95+ MI factor, or can use use the < 95% factor by using the original value "
Steven Stone  :  "you can include the interest"
Jason York  :  "for an FHA Streamline without an appraisal, is the new loan amount limited to the principle balance plus new MI, or can you include daily interest also?"
LSP  :  "REPRICE: 11:37 AM - Franklin American Better"
John McClellan  :  "the Horror! 105-5!"
John Paul Mulchay  :  "Man, I can't believe we're all the way down to 105-5"
Matthew Graham  :  "http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/maturity_extension_faq.html end of 2012"
Andy Pada  :  "twist continues until when?"
Matthew Graham  :  "In other news, Fed just finished today's "twist" buying in 6-8 year range, $4.67 bln vs an expected range of 4.25-5.25 bln. "
Matthew Graham  :  "ECB to Risk-On Rally: "Gear down, turbo!""
Matthew Graham  :  "just a reminder from the ECB that the overnight developments aren't instantly applicable."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ASMUSSEN - ESM CAN ONLY FUND BANKS DIRECTLY ONCE BANKING SUPERVISION IS ESTABLISHED, DECISION BY YEAR-END "

Read what our user's have to say about MBS Live on LinkedIn.
» Start a two week free trial of MBS Live.