The Day Ahead: Domestic Data Scarcely Registers VS Greekend
A few weeks back, we very reluctantly capitulated to conformity and used the term "Grexit" one time (potential Greece Euro-zone exit). It felt wrong... mostly because we didn't think of it first. But that all changes now! We give you: Greekend! Perhaps the most hyped and drama-rich weekend in the history of Greece's Euro-zone fun (previous weekend drama may also be referred to as Greekends), and it all boils down to a simple yes or no to a simple question: Will the Greek radical left party win elections?
If you're not fashionably up to speed on the implications of Greekend, it's important because the radical left party is also known as the "anti-bailout" or "anti-austerity" party. Bailouts... austerity... they just go together... You can't separate them... But leftist leader Alexi Tsipras doesn't much fancy austerity, yet very kindly would request that the EU continue to send the checks they previously agreed to send on the condition of austerity. And yes... It IS that simple.
Now, it's perfectly plausible that Tsipras could win the election (or should we say "Grelections?") and we come to find out that staying in the Euro-zone turns out to be more important than abolishing austerity, in which case bond markets will weaken or simply move on to obsessing primarily over Spain ("Spankends" in our future?), but one thing is fore sure: he can't do both. Well, technically he could accomplish both if the EU turns their battleship in mid-stream and softens the austerity requirement for the Greek bailout, but to do so would set an unbelievably risky precedent that emboldens the rest of the European periphery to be just as petulant and ostensibly illogical as Tsipras.
Folks who are more nonchalant about Greekend than we are will characterize Tsipras' ridiculousness as "purely political posturing." We hope they're right. It's just hard to forget previous instances of ridiculousness in the not too distant past (Papandreou who?).
Oh yeah, and there's a G20 summit over the weekend, which is basically just there to serve as 'damage control' for what dreams may come from Grelections, and there may even be some domestic data this morning like Empire State Manufacturing, Treasury International Capital, Industrial Production, and Consumer Sentiment, but without any exaggeration or sarcasm, we sincerely could not care any less about this morning's economic data with Greekend up next and Wednesday's super important FOMC Announcement on-deck.
Whatever the case, make sure you "get your Greek on" or "all Greeked out" as the case may be, because this Greekend's Grelections could hearken the Grexit. Any other "Gre..." ideas?
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Week Of Mon, Jun 11 2012 - Fri, Jun 15 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Tue, Jun 12 |
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|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
May |
% |
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
14:00 |
Federal budget, $ |
May |
bl |
-122.5 |
+59.12 |
-- |
|
Wed, Jun 13 |
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|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
804.8 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4476.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.6 |
-0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
May |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core yy |
May |
% |
+2.8 |
+2.7 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
May |
% |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
May |
% |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
PPI inflation yy, NSA |
May |
% |
1.1 |
1.9 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Apr |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.3 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
10-yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Jun 14 |
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|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, |
May |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
CPI yy, |
May |
% |
+2.2 |
+2.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumer Prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumer Prices yy |
May |
% |
+1.8 |
+2.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
375 |
377 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.27 |
3.293 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Current Account |
Q1 |
$bln |
-132.1 |
-124.11 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Jun 15 |
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|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jun |
-- |
14.0 |
17.09 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Apr |
bl |
-- |
20.47 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Apr |
bl |
-- |
36.2 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
May |
% |
79.2 |
79.2 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
May |
% |
+0.1 |
+1.1 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Jun |
-- |
77.5 |
79.3 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Jun |
-- |
85.3 |
87.2 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Jun |
-- |
71.8 |
74.3 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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