The Day Ahead: Economic Data And Treasury Auction Cycle Ramp Up Quickly
After the first two days of the week offered very little by way of data and events--a mostly uneventful 3yr Note Auction and a similarly unimportant Import/Export Prices report--the pace quickens considerably on Wednesday and perhaps even peaks. It's not that markets have been without motivation though... Europe, as usual of late, has been more than capable of moving the needle, but even so, Tuesday remained something of an odd day in the sense that price/yield movements seemed more random and were less readily attributable even to the unscheduled headlines that would normally take the wheel.
Full Disclosure: that seemingly random market movement could continue right through the next 7 days of "event intensity." In other words, the upcoming economic events are huge, densely packed, and hotly anticipated. Those include today's and tomorrow's Treasury auctions, elections in Greece and the G20 summit over the weekend, and the FOMC announcement on the 20th. All in all (and mostly because of the Greek elections and FOMC Announcement), this 7 day space of time has the most potential for market movement since the most recent spat of political turmoil in Greece.
In addition to the 10yr Note Auction at 1pm, the rest of today's events are no slouches. Retail Sales at 8:30am is always a potential market mover, and we're definitely more interested in that report than Producer Prices that occupy the same time slot. Business Inventories prints at 10am, but is at least a full notch lower on the market-movement meter. Unless major drama ensues in the European session this morning, today's 10yr Auction will be the lowest yielding in history.
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Week Of Mon, Jun 11 2012 - Fri, Jun 15 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Tue, Jun 12 |
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|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
May |
% |
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
14:00 |
Federal budget, $ |
May |
bl |
-122.5 |
+59.12 |
-- |
|
Wed, Jun 13 |
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|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
804.8 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4476.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.6 |
-0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
May |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core yy |
May |
% |
+2.8 |
+2.7 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
May |
% |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
May |
% |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
PPI inflation yy, NSA |
May |
% |
1.1 |
1.9 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Apr |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.3 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
10-yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Jun 14 |
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|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, |
May |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
CPI yy, |
May |
% |
+2.2 |
+2.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumer Prices mm |
May |
% |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Consumer Prices yy |
May |
% |
+1.8 |
+2.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
375 |
377 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.27 |
3.293 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Current Account |
Q1 |
$bln |
-132.1 |
-124.11 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Jun 15 |
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|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jun |
-- |
14.0 |
17.09 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Apr |
bl |
-- |
20.47 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Apr |
bl |
-- |
36.2 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
May |
% |
79.2 |
79.2 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
May |
% |
+0.1 |
+1.1 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Jun |
-- |
77.5 |
79.3 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Jun |
-- |
85.3 |
87.2 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Jun |
-- |
71.8 |
74.3 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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