The Day Ahead: Calm Domestic Calendar Leaves Focus on Europe
Today's calendar of US economic data is the lightest of the week with Pending Home Sales the only monthly report. Other items dot the calendar, such as weekly Mortgage Applications, Fed "Twist" buying, and several Fed speakers in the afternoon. But as has so often been the case recently, there looks to be more interesting considerations abroad.
This was indeed the key market mover during Tuesday's session. Well, technically Egan Jones may not be a European firm, but it was their downgrade of Spanish sovereign debt (the third within 30 days) that caused the EUR/USD to fall to fresh multi-year lows. US Bond Markets improved at their quickest pace of the day, but turned around just as soon as the Euro did.
Risk rallied into the afternoon with EUR/USD climbing out of its pit, S&P's regaining their morning highs, and bond markets selling off in light volume. At least half the distance covered during the selling has already been gained back in early Asian trading, and whether or not those gains last into the domestic session, it's clear that domestic bond markets continue to take their cues from the Euro and European Benchmark debt.
With that in mind, the calendar of events in Europe isn't nearly as sparse as the domestic calendar. We'll potentially be greeted with early morning headlines (4am) from the EU Commission's 2012 Recommendations as well as various Euro-zone economic data including business, economic, industrial , consumer, and services sentiment surveys (5am). ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at 11am New York time. All in all, it's shaping up to be a "wire-watching" day.
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Week Of Tue, May 29 2012 - Fri, Jun 1 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Tue, May 29 |
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|
08:30 |
Midwest manufacturing |
Apr |
-- |
-- |
92.2 |
94.2 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm SA |
Mar |
% |
0.0 |
0.2 |
+0.1 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
Mar |
% |
-0.2 |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 yy |
Mar |
% |
-2.9 |
-3.5 |
-2.6 |
|
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
May |
-- |
70.0 |
69.2 |
64.9 |
|
Wed, May 30 |
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|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
804.9 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4456.4 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Pending sales change mm |
Apr |
% |
+0.1 |
+4.1 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Pending homes index |
Apr |
-- |
-- |
101.4 |
-- |
|
Thu, May 31 |
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|
07:30 |
Challenger Layoffs |
May |
k |
-- |
40,559 |
-- |
|
08:15 |
ADP Employment |
May |
k |
+148 |
+119 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
370k |
370k |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.25 |
3.26 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Corporate Profits |
Q1-Adv |
% |
+1.1 |
+1.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Real GDP qq SA |
Q1-Pre |
% |
+1.9 |
+2.2 |
-- |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
May |
-- |
56.5 |
56.2 |
-- |
|
Fri, Jun 1 |
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|
08:30 |
Personal consump real mm |
Apr |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Personal income mm |
Apr |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.4 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Non-farm payrolls |
May |
k |
+150 |
+115 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Unemployment rate mm |
May |
% |
8.1 |
8.1 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Construction spending |
Apr |
% |
+0.4 |
+0.1 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
May |
-- |
53.9 |
54.8 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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