MBS MID-DAY: After Merkel-Speak Soothes, Draghi Speaks Sooth

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
The main market-mover this morning was a CNBC interview with Angela Merkel.  In it, the German chancellor offered an increasingly supportive tone on Greece remaining in the Euro-zone, saying that Germany would be open to Greece seeking additional stimulus.  This was a net-negative for bond markets and generally soothed broader markets, though Treasuries and MBS maintained supportive ledges.  Moments ago, news hit that the ECB would be stopping some monetary policy operations to some Greek banks.  This follows earlier statements from ECB President Mario Draghi that point to a line in the sand that the ECB will not cross in order to keep Greece in the EZ--a decidedly different tone than the Merkel interview.  Bonds bounced back somewhat, and in the heaviest volume of the day, though it remains unclear if the correction is simply bringing us "back to flat" or if there will be follow-through (or even a bounce back to weaker levels).  For now, we're waiting and seeing.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
104-09 : -0-01
FNMA 4.0
106-01 : -0-01
FNMA 4.5
107-04 : +0-02
FNMA 5.0
108-14 : +0-01
GNMA 3.5
105-29 : +0-01
GNMA 4.0
108-20 : +0-02
GNMA 4.5
109-16 : +0-01
GNMA 5.0
110-19 : +0-01
FHLMC 3.5
104-02 : -0-02
FHLMC 4.0
105-26 : +0-01
FHLMC 4.5
106-21 : +0-01
FHLMC 5.0
107-25 : -0-01
Pricing as of 11:08 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.

10:00AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Weaker Overnight, But Finding Support So Far
It was "risk on" overnight as Treasuries followed German Bunds and global equities moderately higher in the overnight session. But the move was fairly tame into NY hours, looking more like markets were simply taking a quick break from their recently preferred 'risk off' trading habits.

Then around 8:15am, the risk-positive momentum (bad for bonds/MBS) got it's biggest and fastest push on comments from Germany's Merkel that she is determined to see Greece stay in the Euro-zone and more importantly/surprisingly, that Germany is open to Greece pursuing additional stimulus. This is clearly the "big deal" of the morning and overnight events (watch the CNBC interview and analysis HERE).

Stock prices and bond yields moved higher at their quickest pace of the morning and in the highest volume, by far. That said, bond market weakness was well-contained with 10yr yields holding under a ceiling at 1.817 and Fannie 3.5 MBS finding support at 104-03. As expected and discussed in The Day Ahead, the morning's domestic economic data was a non-event as markets didn't noticeably trade Housing Starts or Industrial Production numbers.

What we're left with is still a range-bound trading pattern, in heavy volume, dominated by tradeflows ("positional adjustments" aka, profit-taking, short covering, new shorts, new longs, etc...) and technical levels. We'll go with the aforementioned 1.817 as the first technical line in the sand, having bumped it twice thus far, and in high volume. Fannie 3.5 MBS have a pivot at 104-05 and another, clearly, at 104-03.

Anything better than those defensive pivots is just gravy at this point considering we essentially opened in the weakest territory. The next scheduled market-mover is the release of April 25th's FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm.
9:20AM  :  ECON: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Both Higher
* Output +1.1 pct vs +0.6 pct consensus
* Capacity Utilization 79.2 vs 79.0
* Industrial Production largest rise since Dec 2010
* Cap Use highest since April 08

Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in April. Output is now reported to have fallen 0.6 percent in March and to have moved up 0.4 percent in February; previously, industrial production was estimated to have been unchanged in both months. Manufacturing output increased 0.6 percent in April after having decreased 0.5 percent in March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, which increased nearly 4 percent, manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent, and output for all but a few major industries increased. Production at mines rose 1.6 percent, and the output of utilities gained 4.5 percent after unseasonably warm weather in the first quarter held down demand for heating. At 97.4 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for April was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry moved up to 79.2 percent, a rate 3.1 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
8:36AM  :  ECON: Housing Starts Rise Faster Than Expected
* 717k Annual Rate vs 680k consensus
* Permits 715k Annual Rate vs 730k consensus

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for April 2012:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000. This is 7.0 percent (±1.0%) below the revised March rate of 769,000, but is 23.7 percent (±1.9%) above the revised April 2011 estimate of 578,000. Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 475,000; this is 1.9 percent (±1.1%) above the revised March figure of 466,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 217,000 in April.

Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000. This is 2.6 percent (±14.8%)* above the revised March estimate of 699,000 and is 29.9 percent (±15.2%) above the revised April 2011 rate of 552,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 492,000; this is 2.3 percent (±11.9%)* above the revised March figure of 481,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 217,000.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Matthew Graham  :  "and there's the biggest pop of volume in bond markets of the morning"
Matthew Graham  :  "and there go stocks!"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ECB STOPS MONETARY POLICY OPERATIONS TO SOME GREEK BANKS AS RECAPITALISATION NOT IN PLACE -CENBANK SOURCES "
Matt Hodges  :  "much better than the volatility"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "i guess this is the benefit to mbs not rallying further when tsy's did"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "nice to see mbs holding ground vs tsy's"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "taking those modifications off the books seems to make those numbers look pretty good"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US Q1 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATE AT LOWEST SINCE Q3 2008 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- RATE OF U.S. MORTGAGES IN SERIOUS DELINQUENCY AT 7.44 PCT IN Q1 VS 7.73 PCT IN Q4 AND 8.10 PCT IN Q1 2011 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US HOME LOANS ENTERING FORECLOSURE PROCESS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IN Q1 0.93 PCT VS 1.04 PCT IN Q4, 1.03 PCT IN Q1 2011 - MBA "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- SHARE OF U.S. MORTGAGES IN FORECLOSURE AT 4.39 PCT IN Q1 VS 4.38 PCT IN Q4, 4.52 PCT IN Q1 2011 - MBA "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US 2012 Q1 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATE 7.40 PCT VS 7.58 PCT IN Q4 2011 AND 8.32 PCT IN Q1 2011 -- MBA "
Andrew Horowitz  :  "no they wouldn't they would be all for it as long as a German is President"
Matt Hodges  :  "the germans will disagree"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "LOL now thats funny"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- GERMAN FINMIN SCHAEUBLE SAYS WOULD BE IN FAVOUR OF TURNING EUROPEAN COMMISSION INTO EUROPEAN GOVT, ELECTING A EUROPEAN PRESIDENT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. APRIL CAPACITY USE RATE HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2008 (79.5 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. APRIL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISE LARGEST SINCE MATCHING GAIN IN DEC 2010 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. APRIL CAPACITY USE RATE 79.2 PCT (CONS 79.0 PCT) VS MARCH 78.4 PCT (PREV 78.6 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +1.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.6 PCT) VS MARCH -0.6 PCT (PREV 0.0 PCT) "
Adam Quinones  :  "kick the can, chase your tail, kick the can, chase your tail...."
Matt Hodges  :  "we've tried the proactive route... i think we are stuck with reactive now"
Matthew Graham  :  "one unfortunate timing issue re: Europe and the Fed is that most of the recent Greek/Spanish hullabaloo has come after 4/25"
Adam Quinones  :  "I guess the question is how much conversation was focused on Euro fallout"
Matthew Graham  :  "entirely possible, though I'm not sure what they can say besides "we see that this is a problem and could continue to be.""
Adam Quinones  :  "what do you think MG?"
Adam Quinones  :  "I think the street will be looking for comments re: Europe"
Adam Quinones  :  "..QEIII has been creeping back into color lately bc of Euro zone."
Matthew Graham  :  "I think it's more to do with pinning down the group sentiment on the time frame for policy changes, how it's evolving, what's likely to change it going forward, and for whom."
Christopher Stevens  :  "Well enough of that for the day...what will the Fed have to say this afternoon with the stable inflation number released yesterday."
Matt Hodges  :  "considering many AMCs are defrocked appraisers"
Matt Hodges  :  "shocking"
Christopher Stevens  :  "It was also pointed out that since AMC's were put in place (most owned by big banks) appraisal fraid has actually increased."
Christopher Stevens  :  "Also, CPB specifically stated that when they do their "review" of your company they want to see that you have a Compliance management System in place"
Matthew Graham  :  "Red Box! DVDs, Games, and low balance mortgages!"
Jeff Anderson  :  "The flat fee in areas where the loan amounts are relatively small will drive out a lot of brokers in those areas, I would think. Can't imagine the flat fee would be similar to a current fair commission on those deals. Leaving who else, but the big banks."
Christopher Stevens  :  "I think things will get worse regulation wise before they get better. CFPB is hell bent on "fixing" things"
Christopher Stevens  :  "HVCC is also a hot topic"
Christopher Stevens  :  "The flat fee is a big issue with Brokers as is the idea of a 3% cap on fees under the proposed QRM"
Christopher Stevens  :  "It seems the CFPB has grown to over 800 employees with more being hired everyday. They are going to make new rules and regulations regardless if they are needed or not because the government wants it"
Christopher Stevens  :  "was at a conference yesterday and heard from Rholda Ricketts (Deputy Superintendent Mortgage Banking Division, a rep from CFPB and Marc Savitt (Pres. Nat'l Assoc. of Independent Housing Professionals). What I learned is everyone has their own agenda."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US APRIL SINGLE-FAMILY STARTS +2.3 PCT TO 492,000 UNIT RATE; MULTIFAMILY +3.2 PCT TO 225,000 UNIT RATE "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US APRIL HOUSING PERMITS 715,000 UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 730,000) VS MARCH 769,000 UNIT RATE, HIGHEST SINCE SEPT 2008 (PREV 764,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US APRIL HOUSING PERMITS -7.0 PCT VS MARCH +8.8 PCT (PREV +6.9 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US APRIL HOUSING STARTS 717,000 UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 680,000) VS MARCH 699,000 (PREV 654,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US APRIL HOUSING STARTS +2.6 PCT VS MARCH -2.6 PCT (PREV -5.8 PCT) "

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