MBS RECAP: Week Begins Slowly, But in Strong Territory
By:
Matthew Graham
•
MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Monday turned out to be a non-starter as MBS and Treasuries spent another day doing their favorite activities. For MBS, that's been "holding inside a 4-6 tick range," while Treasuries see it as "inside a 2bp range." In addition to simply being flat on the day, each market was also flat with respect to Friday's trading. To illustrate this point, see the following charts with Friday's movement on the left followed by today's on the right.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
3:44PM :
ECON: Consumer Credit Expands Most Since November 2011
* Consumer Credit up $21.36 bln vs $9.8 bln Consensus
* Previous month revised to $9.27 bln
* Largest rise since Nov 2001
* Revolving Credit up $5.18 bln in March vs $2.35 bln drop in Feb
* Non-Revolving up from $11.62 bln to $16.17 bln
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 7-3/4 percent in the first quarter. Revolving credit was little changed, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11-1/2 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 10-1/4 percent.
* Previous month revised to $9.27 bln
* Largest rise since Nov 2001
* Revolving Credit up $5.18 bln in March vs $2.35 bln drop in Feb
* Non-Revolving up from $11.62 bln to $16.17 bln
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 7-3/4 percent in the first quarter. Revolving credit was little changed, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11-1/2 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 10-1/4 percent.
1:37PM :
Excruciatingly Slow and Sideways At Multi-Month Highs
MBS and Treasuries continue to grind sideways in exceedingly low volume. Neither the Fed coupon pass or European headlines trickling in have been enough to move 10yr yields or Fannie 3.5's from their narrow ranges on the day. 10yr Futures contracts--by way of benchmarking general "bond market volume"-- might grow to HALF the amount of Friday's tally.
Fannie 3.5's have held between 104-00 and 104-05, extending the already record-breaking time spent holding this close to all-time highs. They're currently 2 ticks up on the day, and indeed have spent most of their time in a 2 tick range from 104-02 to 104-04.
10yr yields are stuck between 1.86 and 1.88 on the day, but the latter has recently been the focal point of the range. Consumer Credit is the only potential mover ahead on the calendar at 3pm.
Fannie 3.5's have held between 104-00 and 104-05, extending the already record-breaking time spent holding this close to all-time highs. They're currently 2 ticks up on the day, and indeed have spent most of their time in a 2 tick range from 104-02 to 104-04.
10yr yields are stuck between 1.86 and 1.88 on the day, but the latter has recently been the focal point of the range. Consumer Credit is the only potential mover ahead on the calendar at 3pm.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Matt Hodges : "y"
Matt Sullivan : "gotcha so still ok to do 6% with 3.5 down"
Matt Hodges : "not yet"
Matt Sullivan : "but they havent done that yet right?"
Matt Hodges : "right now, FHA has asked for comment on dropping to 3%, with a minimum $"
Matt Sullivan : "with 3.5 down on an FHA loan...what is the max. seller assist...6%?"
Brayden Alexander : "Oh great, for some reason 4 was sticking in my mind. THanks BB"
Brent Borcherding : "10, ALL Financed Residential Properties"
Brayden Alexander : "FNMA Question- How many properties may a borrower have financed? Also does this include privately held mortgages not shown on credit, but interest reported on 1040?"
Rob Ellis : "That's what I thought Clayton, in TX taxes alone can be $5k"
Clayton Sandy : "Have them bring in the $2K. $5K is just the max that can be financed."
Rob Ellis : "Freddie Relief Refi question - Max $5k over pay off, let's assume $7k in prepaids and closing costs though, can we finance the $5k and have borrower bring $2k to close or do we have to wipe out $2k in fees?"
Matt Hodges : "impeachment, recall elections..."
Brent Borcherding : "What happens in a country when they go through the democratic process, vote in the person who they believe best represents their interests and within the first 6 months they find he really is just protecting the lenders?"
Matthew Graham : "it was a consideration last week, slightly accelerated the "risk-off" trade overnight, but as you can see, mostly unchanged now. I think it's weighing on the market for sure, but I'm not sure how much weight I'd give it vs. NFP etc."
Matt Hodges : "last week is my guess - Hollande's election was clear then"
Jason Wilborn : "or did it get priced in last week?"
Jason Wilborn : "I wonder when the elections in Europe really set in for the market"
Matt Hodges : "the thing is lots of our "make sense" deals aren't making it through either AUS or U/W, yet a deal like this will...."
john murphy : "I just approved a 90% portfolio 634 FICO 35% DTI w/ 50% payment shock...and that made me quesy. This appears 100%+?"
Jason Zimmer : "staying out of trouble...not likely"
Jason Zimmer : "getting approved=no problem"
Matt Hodges : "i read them the riot act"
Matt Hodges : "borrower claims they have a budget for this increase"
Matt Hodges : "no, but i see a recipe for disaster"
Jason Zimmer : "i see no issues"
Matt Hodges : "now, realize that their mortgage payment is going up $700/month and all credit cards are maxed out"
Matt Hodges : "FHA purchase with 661 middle, 37% back ratio. How's that sound?"
Clayton Sandy : "Wells Freddie is only Wells to Wells. No open access. LTV is unlimited."
Joel Marks : "Yes, only Wells to Wells on Freddie."
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