The Week Ahead: Manufacturing Data and Employment Situation
Bond markets traded in jaw-droppingly narrow ranges last week given the presence of the FOMC events (announcement, forecasts, press conference) and Q1 GDP. Markets showed a willingness to push the envelope only on a few occasions and only in the overnight sessions. During US trading hours, things were quiet, although there was a nominal weakening heading into Wednesday which contained both the FOMC and the 5yr Note auction. Yields and MBS prices alike, headed out on Friday at the same levels that began the week.
We were hoping to see more of a trend develop following the FOMC and GDP, but given the flatness, we begin the current week almost safely assuming that Friday's Employment Situation Report (NFP or "Non-Farm-Payrolls" being the primary component of the report) will be "the thing" that finally drives home the sense that we've returned to the previously existing range lasting from November 2011 through mid March 2012.
We say "almost safely" because we can't ever really rule out sufficient movement to make things unpleasant for rate sheets. There's plenty of data throughout the week, and things like Wednesday morning's ADP Employment Report have occasionally caused a relative stir if the results cause markets to question NFP assumptions. Still, any such volatility would not be as likely to alter the broader range between 1.8 and 2.07 in 10yr yields or 103-00 and 104-00 in Fannie 3.5 MBS.
Monday wastes no time getting down to business (as some Mondays do) with Personal Incomes and Outlays (PCE) at 8:30am and ISM-Chicago's Purchasing Managers Index at 9:45am. While the 'income' component is important for evaluating consumer spending, and the "consumption component" or PCE (personal consumption expenditures) is a major contributor to GDP, they're both a bit backward looking. Given that we already got a preliminary look at Q1 GDP and that today's PCE is for the month of March (which falls in Q1), it's not a report that generates a lot of fuss unless it deviates significantly from expectations.
|
Week Of Mon, Apr 30 2012 - Fri, May 4 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Apr 30 |
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|
08:30 |
Personal consumption mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.4 |
+0.8 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Personal income mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Apr |
-- |
61.0 |
62.2 |
-- |
|
Tue, May 1 |
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|
10:00 |
Construction spending |
Mar |
% |
0.5 |
-1.1 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Apr |
-- |
53.0 |
53.4 |
-- |
|
Wed, May 2 |
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|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
697.7 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
3715.2 |
-- |
|
08:15 |
ADP National Employment |
Apr |
k |
179 |
209 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Factory orders mm |
Mar |
% |
-1.5 |
1.3 |
-- |
|
Thu, May 3 |
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|
07:30 |
Challenger layoffs |
Apr |
k |
-- |
37.9 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
380 |
388 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Productivity |
Q1-P |
Pct |
-0.5 |
+0.9 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q1-P |
Pct |
+2.8 |
+2.8 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
Apr |
-- |
55.5 |
56.0 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
ISM N-Mfg Business Activity |
Apr |
-- |
57.9 |
58.9 |
-- |
|
Fri, May 4 |
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|
08:30 |
Non-farm payrolls |
Apr |
k |
+170 |
+120 |
|
|
08:30 |
Unemployment rate mm |
Apr |
% |
8.2 |
8.2 |
|
|
* mm: month over month | yy: year over year | qq: quarter over quarter * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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