NAHB: Warm Weather Likely Skewed Remodeling Numbers

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) decreased one point in the first quarter of 2012 to 48 from an upwardly revised 47 in the fourth quarter of 2011.  The overall RMI rating combines three ratings of current remodeling activity with four indicators of future activity.  Any number below 50 for the RMI or any of its parts indicates that more remodelers report lower market activity compared to the previous quarter than report it higher.

In the first quarter, the RMI component measuring current market conditions dropped one point to 49.  There are three internal parts to that component and they pulled in different directions with major additions unchanged at 44, minor additions rising one point to 52, and maintenance and repair dropping four points to 51.

The overall measure of future activity fell two points to 44.  Two of its components also fell; the backlog of remodeling jobs was down four points to 43 and appointments for proposals fell five points to 45.  Calls for bids rose one point to 47 and amount of work committed for the upcoming three months was unchanged at 42.  

In the West the RMI was up three points to 47 but dropped in the other three regions.  The Northeast fell to 48 from 55, the Midwest was down two points to 50 and the South decreased from 49 to 46. 

"We are seeing that the demand for remodeling work has been pulled forward because of a mild winter," said NAHB Remodelers Chairman George "Geep" Moore Jr. "That is why many remodelers reported lower numbers for future activity."

NAHB reported, because of a recently discovered computer coding error, it has revised the RMI going back to 2006.  The computer error had slightly reduced the true values of the overall index and both of its major components.  Corrections to the data caused some increases of a point or less but NAHB said that quarter-to-quarter patterns remain relatively unchanged and the impact on the primary indicators was muted.