The Day Ahead: Several Housing-Related Reports; Tight Range Persists
After yesterday's quiet session, bond markets strengthened during Asian trading hours only to move weaker when Europe got involved. Neither of the moves were very big and 10yr yields are set to hit the New York session less than 1bp higher than yesterday's 5pm level. S&P futures are about 2 pts higher.
Whereas Monday's calendar of data and events was essentially empty, today's is appreciably busier. Things get started at 9am with Case Shiller home prices. An hour later, a trio of data hits: FHFA Home Prices, New Home Sales, and Consumer Confidence. While the housing-related data (prices and sales) is expected to be slightly stronger than last time, Consumer Confidence is seen falling from 70.8 to 70.3.
Even if data deviates from previous readings by more than the expected amounts, it's hard to imagine that it would motivate any big moves in either direction with tomorrow's immensely more important events looming (FOMC Announcement, Bernanke Press Conference, FOMC Forecasts, 5yr TSY Auction). Today's 2yr auction at 1pm isn't a major consideration.
Even if bond markets begin to move more aggressively than we think they should before tomorrow, the technical framework seems to offer some logical boundaries. Using 10yr yields as a proxy for "the bond market," we generally see recent movement as indicated by the chart below. After breaking back into the previous horizontal range in early April, we've been trading slightly lower in yield in a narrow trend channel. There's major support at the upper red line (around 2.06) and minor support along the upper teal line. On the bullish side, the lower red and teal lines offer resistance to further gains. The bottom line is this: whereas events today and tomorrow morning have the power to move things around within the teal range (and possibly test its boundaries), Wednesday afternoon's FOMC-related events have the power to move things around within the red lines (and even more possibly test their boundaries).
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Week Of Mon, Apr 23 2012 - Fri, Apr 27 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Tue, Apr 24 |
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|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm SA |
Feb |
% |
+0.2 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
Feb |
% |
-0.6 |
-0.8 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 yy |
Feb |
% |
-3.4 |
-3.8 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Monthly Home Price mm |
Feb |
% |
-- |
0.0 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
New home sales-units mm |
Mar |
ml |
.320 |
.313 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
Apr |
-- |
70.3 |
70.8 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
2-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
35.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Wed, Apr 25 |
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|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
725.4 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
3936.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Durable goods |
Mar |
% |
-1.5 |
+2.4 |
-- |
|
11:30 |
5-Yr Treasury Acution |
-- |
bl |
35.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
12:30 |
FOMC rate decision |
no policy chng expected. all about verbiage |
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|
14:00 |
FOMC Member Forecasts |
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|
14:15 |
Bernanke Press Conference |
will press "press" for QE clarity? Probably |
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|
Thu, Apr 26 |
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|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
375k |
386k |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.29 |
3.297 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Pending sales change mm |
Mar |
% |
+1.0 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
7-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
29.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Apr 27 |
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|
08:30 |
GDP (Q1 2011 – Advance) |
Q1 |
% |
+2.5 |
+3.0 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Apr |
-- |
75.7 |
75.7 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Apr |
-- |
81.0 |
80.6 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Apr |
-- |
72.5 |
72.5 |
-- |
|
mm: month over month | yy: year over year | qq: quarter over quarter (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted |
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