The Day Ahead: If Spain Can't Help Us, No One Can
A theme is developing... It's the one where we question the need for market analysis on a week that has, thus far, behaved as expected to an unexpectedly high degree (see what I did there?). In other words, things have been boring, sideways, uneventful, you name it... We're running out of words to describe the lack of directional movement in bond markets.
Would that we were as fortunate as stocks and had a sort of "earnings season" that could be counted on to routinely inspire varying degrees of bullish and bearish moves, with the ever-present risk of massive movement. Oh, perhaps we did that, but simply called it "2008-2009." Even late 2011 was fairly exciting for market watchers, not to mention the gyrations from mid-March through early April.
But as of right now, the current week's trading range is one of the most narrow on record. Certainly, only the week of Feb 26th even comes close with a 9bp range vs this week's 7bp range. Last week's range was just a hair over 9bps as well. Needless to say, two back to back weeks with trading ranges about as narrow as they get makes a great case for tuning out.
We wish we could, but there's this pesky Spanish 10yr Bond auction coming up in the overnight session. It's probably no threat to "subdued trading" ahead of next week's FOMC, but it could tips the scales enough to decide who is more determined between bond market bulls and bears. Dear Spain, please help us break this monotony. If you can't help us, no one can--at least not this week.
Meanwhile MBS stand on the sidelines, generally keeping pace with benchmarks, ebbing and flowing based on relative value, Fed Buying, and originator supply. All those things, however, are merely "the leash" whereas broader bond market movements are "the master." MBS ANALOGY MEMORIES.... (not to mention memories of being able to confidently say "no one cares" about ADP Employment reports... Those were the days!)
|
Week Of Mon, Apr 16 2012 - Fri, Apr 20 2012 |
||||||
|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Apr 16 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Apr |
-- |
18.0 |
20.2 |
6.56 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Mar |
% |
0.3 |
1.1 |
+0.8 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
Mar |
% |
0.6 |
0.9 |
+0.8 |
|
09:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Feb |
bl |
-- |
82.96 |
15.35 |
|
09:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Feb |
bl |
-- |
101.0 |
107.7 |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Feb |
% |
+0.6 |
+0.7 |
+0.6 |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Apr |
-- |
28 |
28 |
25 |
|
Tue, Apr 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Mar |
ml |
.705 |
.698 |
.654 |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Mar |
ml |
.710 |
.715 |
.747 |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Mar |
% |
78.6 |
78.4 |
78.6 |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Wed, Apr 18 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
3467.3 |
3936.3 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
678.8 |
725.4 |
|
Thu, Apr 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
370 |
380 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.29 |
3.251 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Mar |
ml |
4.62 |
4.59 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Exist. home sales % chg |
Mar |
% |
+0.5 |
-0.9 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.7 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Index |
Apr |
-- |
12.0 |
12.5 |
-- |