The Day Ahead: Lots of Events, But No A-List Stars
Yesterday, we brushed up a bit on the differences between technical and fundamental analysis. That's probably worth revisiting considering that yesterday effectively never happened (it DID, in fact, happen, but might as well not have due to low volume and no price movement). Thus, today is really like the beginning of the week, and a better time to be considering "The Week Ahead" (read it HERE).
Normally, we'd begin the discussion of "The Day Ahead" with a recap of yesterday's movements and such, but seeing as how yesterday never really happened, we'll just skip right to discussing today's events.
Sadly, today isn't yards and miles ahead of yesterday in terms of potential market movers, but it has a few important things going for it. First of all, holiday time is over and the many market participants in the UK, Europe, and Hong Kong are back in action today. That was one of the major detractors from yesterday's session and a welcome change for those of us who patiently watched markets, waiting for something to happen only to be disappointed.
Too, there are actually a ton of scheduled data and events, even if none of it is expected to be too riveting. Yes, there was a Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index yesterday, but it's not normally a market mover and was true to form this time around. By contrast, Wholesale Inventories and Wholesale Sales numbers at 10am are somewhat more interesting and could even register detectable reactions in markets.
There's the often-neglected Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also at 10am. It may not be as glamorous as other employment metrics, but traders might glance at it, especially if it suggests something completely different than NFP. Shortly thereafter, there's Fed Twist buying in the 2036-2042 maturity range followed by several instances of Fed speakers (Fisher at 1230, Lockhart at 1245 and Kocherlakota at 2:30pm.
The afternoon also contains the first of the week's Treasury Note auctions with 3yr tenors up first at 1pm. 15 minutes later, there's a relatively rare 2nd round of Fed Twist buying in the more MBS-relevant 2018-2020 maturity range, which will conclude at 2pm. ("MBS relevant" here refers to the fact that the Fed is buying existing treasury debt that matures in a time frame that is much closer to the time frame in which average new MBS are expected to be paid-off. Thus, that which affects more relevant maturities in Treasuries potentially affects MBS to a greater extent).
|
Week Of Mon, Apr 9 2012 - Fri, Apr 13 2012 |
||||||
|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Apr 9 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Midwest manufacturing |
Feb |
-- |
-- |
90.1 |
91.7 |
|
Tue, Apr 10 |
||||||
|
10:00 |
Wholesale inventories mm |
Feb |
% |
+0.5 |
+0.4 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Wholesale sales mm |
Feb |
% |
+0.7 |
-0.1 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Wed, Apr 11 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
695.7 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
3576.8 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.8 |
+0.4 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.4 |
+0.4 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
10-yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
14:00 |
Federal budget |
Mar |
bl |
-201.5 |
-232.0 |
-- |
|
12:00 |
Beige Book |
|
||||
|
Thu, Apr 12 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
International trade mm $ |
Feb |
bl |
-52.0 |
-52.6 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.4 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core yy |
Mar |
% |
+2.8 |
+3.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Mar |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
355 |
357 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.34 |
3.338 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Apr 13 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Mar |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.4 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
CPI year-over-year |
Mar |
% |
+2.7 |
+2.9 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Excluding Food/Energy (Core CPI) |
Mar |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI year-over-year |
Mar |
% |
+2.2 |
+2.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Real weekly earnings mm |
Mar |
% |
-- |
-0.3 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Apr |
-- |
76.2 |
76.2 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Apr |
-- |
86.0 |
86.0 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Apr |
-- |
69.6 |
69.8 |
-- |